(The Center Square) – Iowans who participated in the latest Iowa Poll seem to have their minds made up as to who they want in the White House in January 2025.
Half favor former President Donald Trump, 32% say they would vote for President Joe Biden and only 3% say they are not sure who they will pick.
The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll queried 860 adults between June 9 and 14. Nine percent of respondents favored independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 2% picked Chase Oliver, the Libertarian Party candidate. Another 3% said they would vote for someone else.
Seventy-six percent of Trump supporters said they would not change their minds about voting for him, but 24% said they could consider someone else.
The fact that Trump is ahead is not a surprise since he won Iowa in 2016 and 2020, University of Iowa professor Timothy Hagle told The Center Square in an email interview. The fact that the incumbent president is polling so low is interesting, he said. Iowa’s voter rolls show that the state is split roughly into one-third Republicans, one-third Democrats, and one-third No Party voters, or independents, according to Hagle.
“Over the last few years Republicans have surged so the current split is about 40%, 30%, and 30%. Even so, that still means that the No Party voters determine statewide results. If Biden is only polling at 32% it suggests that the No Party voters are going heavily to Trump, or at least shying away from Biden. That is also not particularly surprising as it has seemed that the No Party voters have been supporting Republicans more than Democrats for the last few election cycles here,” Hagle said.
While Trump’s legal issues may sway some voters, some see it as “lawfare,” according to Hagle. Iowans, like Americans, likely care more about what Hagle calls “kitchen table” issues.
“Those are usually jobs, the economy, and healthcare. These days you can add in issues regarding children and border security,” Hagle said. “Those issues are far more important than what could be portrayed as a paperwork issue.”
Biden has two weaknesses heading into November, according to Hagle.
“The first is his age and apparent deteriorating capacities,” Hagle said. “Just this weekend there was a video of him apparently freezing while on stage and having to be led off by Obama. As much as Democrats try to claim otherwise, it looked really bad. By itself, it wouldn’t make much difference, but it’s one example of an increasing number of instances where it seems the president has ‘lost a step’ to put it politely.”
Biden’s policies are likely not working for America, Hagle said.
“Again, looking at the kitchen table issues people see that their grocery bills, for example, are much higher than when Biden took office,” Hagle said.”Biden and Democrats will point to inflation having come down, which is good, but prices haven’t come down and are much higher due to past inflation.”
Voter turnout and events before the election could affect the current polling numbers.
“That might be harder to do for something like the economy, which isn’t likely to have a major positive turnaround in a short period of time,” Hagle said. “An end to the Israel-Hamas war might help Biden, if he can claim credit in some way, but there may be portions of the Democrats’ base that will be unhappy with anything short of a ‘win’ for Palestine, which seems unlikely.”
Hagle said he doesn’t buy into the possibility that Biden could be replaced in the general election.
“Aside from some switcheroo at the Democrats’ convention, if Biden’s health continues to deteriorate he may be forced to step down or end his reelection campaign. If something that unusual were to occur it would certainly change the dynamic of the campaign. Depending on what occurred and how it was handled it could help or hurt either party,” Hagle said.
