Two out of three American voters are not in favor of transgender female student athletes competing on women’s and girls’ sports teams.
The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll of 2,500 registered voters across the U.S., conducted by Noble Predictive Insights, found that 67% of voters are opposed to males who identify as females playing girls’ or women’s sports.
Men who took the poll were 75% against allowing transgender females playing girls’ or women’s sports and women were 60% opposed.
Republicans were 89% opposed, 6% supportive and 5% unsure, while Democrats were 45% opposed, 36% supportive and 19% unsure. The only subsection of voters to support transgender females playing female sports was those who identified as “strong Democrats.” Those “strong Democrats” were 43% supportive with 37% opposed and 20% unsure.
“The group driving that support are very left-leaning Democrats,” said Mike Noble, founder and CEO of Noble Predictive Insights, which conducted the poll. “It is pushed by Democrats on the left. Biden’s administration has really embraced it.”
Noble said the issue was an opportunity for Republicans to connect with independent voters and moderate Democrats. Two out of three voters who describe themselves as independent were against allowing transgender females from playing female sports.
“This is a huge opportunity for Republicans this election to use it as wedge issue,” Noble said. “They don’t have a lot of wedge issues. This is a good issue for Republicans.”
Lia Thomas became the focal point of the transgender athlete debate in 2022 when Thomas became the first openly transgender athlete to win an NCAA Division I national championship.
Thomas was ranked 65th in the 500-meter freestyle in 2018-19, the last season Thomas swam for the Penn men’s team, according to Swimming World Magazine. Thomas won the NCAA championship in the 500 freestyle in 2022 while competing for the Penn women’s team.
Paula Scanlan, a former swimmer on the Penn women’s team and a teammate of Thomas, has been critical of the decision to let Thomas compete against women.
Since then, states and schools districts across the country have engaged in controversial debates about whether to allow biological males who identify as females to participate in girls and women’s sports.
The poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from July 31 to Aug. 3. Unlike traditional national polls, with limited respondent count of about 1,000, Noble Predictive surveyed 1,000 registered Republicans, 1,000 registered Democrats, and 500 independents, culminating in a sample size of 2,500. The margin of error for the aggregate sample was ±2.4%, with each political group independently weighted. For information about the methodology, visit www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.
