(The Center Square) – With the primaries now in the rearview mirror for Pennsylvania, the focus has shifted to Nov. 3 general election for candidates up and down the ballot.
Pennsylvania is home to a few closely watched races that could shift the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives for 2027 and beyond.
A pair of major super PACs from opposite sides of the aisle have taken notice and are planning to spend millions to win four races in battleground districts.
House Majority PAC, or HMP, announced last month that they were placing $272 million in initial television and digital reservations for the 2026 election cycle across 68 media markets. This funding, from the group that aims to elect House Democrats, is the organization’s largest early investment in its history.
Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC endorsed by Speaker Mike Johnson and House Republican leadership, announced $153.1 million in its initial wave of fall reservations for the midterm election. The reservation from CLF, which is also its largest ever, spans 38 markets across broadcast, cable, streaming and digital platforms.
In total, $33.5 million has been reserved between the two super PACs for Pennsylvania media markets.
The Democratic PAC plans to spend $20,039,000 in the Keystone State, while the GOP-aligned PAC aims to spend $13,500,000.
“The road to the House majority runs through the Commonwealth,” Christopher Nicholas, a longtime GOP consultant and publisher of the PA Political Digest, told the Center Square.
The four districts that will be in the spotlight as a result of these ads will be the races for the state’s 1st, 7th, 8th, and 10th Congressional Districts. Those four seats are currently held by Republican incumbents.
“Pennsylvania will once again be at the center of the fight for the House majority in 2026, and Democrats are firmly on offense,” HMP spokesperson Katarina Flicker said to the Center Square. “With strong Democratic candidates now set in every Pennsylvania battleground district and House Republicans facing a political environment that’s only getting tougher for them, HMP is ready to invest aggressively across the state to flip critical seats and take back the House in November.”
CLF President Chris Winkelman said their record fundraising gives them the “firepower” needed to make a significant first investment into protecting the Republicans’ narrow majority in the U.S. House.
“This initial reserve reflects the reality that this cycle, again, will be fought on a narrow map,” Winkelman said. “Republicans hold the terrain, and it’s a tall order for Democrats to break through our strong, battle-tested incumbents. This reserve shows we are committed to defending our own while aggressively supporting our candidates on offense.”
The only states that have larger ad reservations for the general election ahead of Pennsylvania, as of now, are Texas and Michigan.
“It’s going to be a good couple months to be a TV station in central Pennsylvania, eastern Pennsylvania, and northeastern Pennsylvania,” Nicholas said.
A significant chunk of the ad spending in Pennsylvania will take place in the Philadelphia media market. For example, HMP announced that it has reserved $12.9 million in the region. Of that, $262,500 will be for Spanish-language programming.
CLF said it has reserved $7.6 million for the Philadelphia media market, which includes several congressional seats.
However, the races for the 1st and 7th Congressional District will likely be the focus of these ads.
Republican U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, seeking his sixth term in office, will face Democratic Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie for the 1st Congressional District in the suburbs north of Philadelphia. GOP U.S. Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, a freshman lawmaker, is being challenged by Democrat Bob Brooks, a firefighters’ union leader, for the 7th Congressional District, situated in the Lehigh Valley.
The only media markets across the country currently scheduled to spend more than the $20.5 million reserved for Philadelphia are Detroit and Harlingen.
Nicholas noted that of the reservations placed by both super PACs, Philadelphia is the only media market in the state that includes two competitive U.S. House races, adding that both seats are “inside that same very expensive TV market.”
National ratings outlets currently give Fitzpatrick the advantage in seeking reelection, although they slightly differ on how competitive the race may be.
Inside Elections describes the race in the 1st Congressional District as “Lean Republican,” while the Cook Political Report rates the race as “likely Republican.”
Those same outlets paint a more challenging road ahead for Mackenzie. Both describe his bid for a second term in the 7th Congressional District as a “toss up.”
Between the two super PACs, $6.7 million has been reserved for ads in the Wilkes-Barre media market.
The race that will be at the center of that spending will be GOP U.S. Rep. Rob Bresnahan’s bid for a second term in the 8th Congressional District against Democratic Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti.
The Democratic-backed PAC, as of now, is planning on spending a bit more in the northeast Pennsylvania media market.
HMP announced a $3.7 million reservation for English-language ads, plus $35,000 for Spanish-language programming, for the Allentown and Wilkes-Barre/Scranton markets. CLF said they are planning to spend $3 million to boost Bresnahan.
And in the Harrisburg media market, HMP announced they have reserved $3.5 million for ads, while CLF has reserved $2.9 million.
GOP U.S. Rep. Scott Perry, running for a seventh term in office, will be challenged by Democrat Janelle Stelson, a former television anchor, in a rematch of the 2024 race for the 10th Congressional District.
The Cook Political Report views Bresnahan and Perry’s races as “toss ups.”
While the candidates have their sights set on their opponent, Nicholas noted that how other races develop will also impact how much money is spent on each individual race.
“As I tell my clients, you’re not just in competition against your opponent, you’re also in competition against all the other people in the country running for seats like yours, because there’s only so much money,” he said. “So, if District X falters, they take that money and move it to District Y, where someone is doing better than expected.”
“You have keeping up with the Joneses,” he continued. “So, the various Democratic challengers in these four seats have to a certain extent keep up with each other, so they don’t fall behind and see their money taken away from them and allocated to somebody else.”
For example, in years past, Nicholas said that Democrats pulled back from the initial ad spending in the race against Fitzpatrick, as polling indicated that he was creating distance between his challengers.
Another difference in these ad reservations from years past is where the money is being spent.
Nicholas noted in the past, the money was mostly spent on broadcast television, but in recent years it has expanded towards streaming and digital platforms in more targeted ads.
HMP told the Center Square that their spending will come between Sept.1 and Election Day, which is typical for their ad spending in House races. CLF did not respond to a request for comment.
Another distinction between the PACs initial reservation includes Spanish language ads. HMP’s ad reservations include $397,000 for Spanish language programming in Pennsylvania, while CLF’s does not include any for the state.
One commonality between the PACs is the high rate they will pay for these ads. Super PACs pay a higher rate for a commercial than a campaign does, Nicholas said, noting at times it is 300%-500% higher than ads from the individual campaign committees because of a federal law called “lowest unit rate in advertising.”
While the ad reservations have been announced, Nicholas said no money formally changes hands at the time you reserve the ads as some races will see increased spending from the initial announcement, while some will see decreased spending.
