(The Center Square) – Four days from Election Day, the outcome of the U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin –one of the closest in the nation – could rest on the decision of a small group of undecided voters, according to a recent poll.
Marquette Law School polled 834 registered and 753 likely Wisconsin voters from Oct. 16-24. The partisan makeup of the poll is 39% Republican, 31% Democratic, and 34% Independent.
In a head-to-head matchup, the survey found Democrat incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin has maintained a slight edge over Republican challenger Eric Hovde, capturing the support of 51% versus 48% of likely voters polled. But her 3-point lead is a drop from her 7-point lead a month ago, leaving the current results within the poll’s +/-4.4 margin of error.
Most importantly, when respondents were allowed to choose undecided, 7% did so, leaving Baldwin with 48% and Hovde with 45%. The decision of these voters could tip the scale at the polls.
But Baldwin also has a higher net score in favorability ratings, receiving a net -5 versus Hovde’s net -12. Part of the discrepancy is due to the 15% of voters who still haven’t heard enough about Hovde to have an opinion, paired with the 36% who view him favorably and 48% who view him unfavorably. Baldwin, by contrast, has both higher favorability and higher unfavorability ratings than Hovde, with 45% seeing her favorably, 50% unfavorably, and only 5% not knowing enough to have an opinion.
On candidate characteristics, 52% of respondents believe Baldwin would better “work to solve national problems,” and 53% believe Hovde would do a better job.
Baldwin scored a bit higher than her opponent, though still within the poll’s margin of error, on which candidate “is most committed to serving the interest of Wisconsin,” with 56% choosing her and 52% choosing Hovde.
A larger gap persists between them on which candidate “is someone who cares about people like me,” with 53% of voters believing the phrase describes Baldwin better, versus 48% who believe it describes Hovde better.
In FiveThirtyEight’s latest election forecast, Baldwin “won” 68 times out of 100 simulations , while Hovde “won” 32 times out of 100 simulations.
