President Donald Trump will head to the 2025 North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit at The Hague on Tuesday. Here’s what to expect from this year’s summit.
Defense spending targets
Formed by the United States, the United Kingdom, and 10 other western nations in 1949 to counter the expansion of Soviet influence throughout Europe, NATO today has 32 member nations.
In 2014, NATO member countries agreed on a minimum defense spending target of 2% of their national GDPs. Members were to aim to reach that target by 2024. Not all of the members had reached the 2% benchmark as of last year.
Trump has repeatedly complained about member countries not meeting defense spending targets, while the U.S. has never devoted less than 3% of its GDP to defense spending. During his first term, Trump threatened to withdraw the U.S. from the organization because of this imbalance, often implying that NATO members benefit much more from America’s membership than the other way around.
While withdrawal never happened, that appeal has become even more relevant because of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. In 2025, Trump has repeatedly urged member countries to raise their defense spending to 5% of their national GDP, insinuating that the U.S. is footing the bill for their security by contributing more to Ukraine’s defense.
Higher spending targets likely
Former Netherlands Prime Minister and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Monday made it sound like the group is going to commit to the 5% spending target Trump has stressed.
“As the world becomes more dangerous, Allied leaders will take bold decisions to strengthen our collective defense, making NATO a stronger, a fairer and a more lethal Alliance,” Rutte said.
“This will include a major new defense investment plan, ranging the benchmark for defense investment to 5% of GDP, a concerted effort to ramp up defense industry across the Alliance, bringing not only greater security, but also more jobs and a continued focus on support for Ukraine, alongside the pursuit of a just and lasting end to Russia’s war of aggression. All of this is essential to keeping our 1 billion citizens safe.”
Negotiables
One of the details that may emerge from the summit is a deadline for reaching the 5% target. There has been discussion of a 2035 or even a 2032 deadline.
Rutte has also suggested that the 5% target be broken down into two categories: 3.5% for “core defense capabilities” and 1.5% as more discretionary defense spending. An as yet unanswered question is whether members will agree that aid to Ukraine can count toward that 1.5% target.
The Russia Ukraine war
Trump has made it clear that he simply wants to see an end to the Russia Ukraine war and that American aid to Ukraine’s efforts is going to flow less freely than it did under the Biden administration. Some European leaders have stood firmly with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in emphasizing that any type of agreed to ceasefire must include strong commitments from Russia to a lasting peace. Trump has shown less interest in those kinds of preconditions and it’s not expected that the U.S. will budge during the summit.
