(The Center Square) – A new report released by Noble Predictive Insights asked Arizona voters why they voted the way they did in the presidential and U.S. senate elections. According to the report, Arizonans weren’t surprised by the presidential election results.
President Donald Trump won the election over Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona with 49.9% of the vote and 11 electoral votes. When polled, a majority of Arizonans thought that Trump had better policy ideas. Unsurprisingly, 89% of Republicans thought Trump had better policies, but 49% of independent and undecided voters felt the same way.
The report also indicates that the economy was the most important issue among Arizonans with immigration and threats to democracy following closely behind, giving Republicans an edge since Trump’s campaign made immigration a signature issue.
Additionally, with Democrats being the current party in power, they are held responsible for both the positive and negative aspects of the economy and 31% of both Republicans and Independents said the economy was the most important issue when voting. On the other hand, Democrats’ main priority was threats to democracy when deciding their vote.
“Republican and Democratic candidates ran like they were living in different universes,” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. “Democrats cared about abortion and threats to democracy much more than immigration. Republicans saw immigration and the economy as crises caused by the Biden Administration. We saw this same pattern in the pre-election polling. But the election proved that the GOP argument – about the economy, immigration, and dissatisfaction with how Biden governed – won the day.”
Another component contributing to Trump’s win is a majority of Arizonans – 56% – viewing Harris as an extension of President Joe Biden’s policies instead of a candidate with her own policy ideas for the future. Since many Arizonans disapproved of Biden’s performance as president, this did not work in Harris’ favor.
“Hindsight is 20/20, but this might be one of the biggest mistakes of the 2024 Democratic process for replacing Biden,” said Mike Noble, NPI founder and CEO. “They chose someone who was part of the Biden Administration, knowing that he had a poor approval rating. Harris could be tied to Biden in a way that almost nobody could.”
When explicitly asked why they voted for who they did, those who voted for Trump talked about his policies and campaign promises.
“Many support him for his stance on issues like the economy, immigration, and law and order, or for his outsider status as a businessman rather than a career politician,” said a Republican man from Gila County described as aged 30-44 and Hispanic/Latino.
On the other hand, many of those who voted for Harris focused more on an anti-Trump rhetoric when explaining their vote.
“Because she is not Donald Trump,” said a Republican man from Maricopa County described as age 45-65 and white. “I did not like Harris or many of her political stances, but I would have preferred her over Trump.”
When it comes to the U.S. Senate race between Republican Kari Lake and Democrat Ruben Gallego, the majority of Arizonans were not surprised by Gallego’s win.
When asked why they voted the way they did, part of the reason was due to Gallego’s “skilled campaign moves,” but another reason was Lake’s weaknesses. Voters were asked why they didn’t favor Lake and the top three reasons were that she denied her loss in the 2022 gubernatorial race, they didn’t like her personality and that she “imitated Trump without offering new ideas.”
“Gallego’s victory is not a surprise,” Noble said. “We also know that Lake’s biggest struggle has been that Republicans and right-leaning Independents have always trusted her less than Trump. But we dug deeper in this poll to find the specific reasons behind that sentiment, and it’s interesting to see just how negative of an impact Lake’s election denials have had for her – even though Trump’s election denial didn’t impact him in the same ways.”
