(The Center Square) — Democratic Rep. Jared Golden and Republican challenger Austin Theriault are locked in a tight race in Maine’s 2nd congressional district, according to a new independent poll.
The University of New Hampshire survey, released over the weekend, suggests the two candidates are essentially tied—45% of those who responded saying they have or will vote for Golden and 44% saying they have or will vote for Theriault in the Nov. 5 elections. The difference is within the margin of error, pollsters said.
Golden, a Marine veteran, narrowly beat incumbent Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin in 2018, a race ultimately decided by ranked-choice voting more than a week after the election. He has been reelected twice and is seeking a third two-year term. He has stressed a record of bipartisan cooperation in Congress, support for gun rights and a willingness to buck national Democrats on key public policy issues.
Theriault, a former NASCAR driver who former President Donald Trump has endorsed, has campaigned heavily on Second Amendment rights in the largely rural congressional district that was rocked by the state’s worst mass shooting in October 2023, when a U.S. Army reservist fatally shot 18 people in a Lewiston bowling alley.
He has also focused on the impact of high inflation and the economy, and criticized Golden over his support for outgoing Democratic President Joe Biden’s economic policies.
While UNH pollsters found that Theriault is more popular among likely voters, a majority of those surveyed said they think Golden will win re-election on Tuesday.
The 2nd District, one of Maine’s two congressional seats, is considered competitive and closely watched by political observers as Republicans seek to maintain control of the House of Representatives.
Trump carried the 2nd District handily in the 2020 elections, peeling off one of the state’s four electoral votes. Biden took Maine’s 1st congressional district in 2020 and went on to win the presidency.
A separate UNH poll, also released over the weekend, showed Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris with a double-digit lead over Trump statewide in a race that could be decided by ranked-choice voting. About 52% of those surveyed said they would vote for Harris, while 41% said they would vote for Trump. However, Trump has a slight lead over Harris, 48% to 44%, in the 2nd congressional district.
Under ranked-choice, voters are asked to rank candidates in order of their preference on the ballot. If nobody gets a majority of the votes in the first round, the candidate with the least votes is eliminated and the votes are reallocated until someone wins a majority.
The Maine Republican Party sued to try to stop the state from using ranked choice in the 2020 presidential election. The U.S. Supreme Court rejected it.
