spot_imgspot_img

Polls: Kennedy exit could impact New Hampshire

(The Center Square) – Rumor mills are churning that independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. may suspend his campaign and endorse former President Donald Trump, potentially creating a close race in New Hampshire.

A recent Granite State Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading Trump 50%-43% and Kennedy at 4%, with a margin of error of just over 2%. The state has four electoral college votes.

The last time New Hampshire was won by a Republican was 2000, when then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush won the state 48%-46% against then-Vice President Al Gore.

The last time a Republican candidate nearly edged out a Democrat in a presidential election in New Hampshire was in 2016, when former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton ran against Trump. Clinton narrowly beat Trump 46.8%-46.5%.

President Joe Biden beat Trump 52%-45% in 2020.

Harris is underperforming against Biden’s numbers at the same time of the 2020 race. By the third week in August, the average polling margin lead for Biden was 9 points according to cumulative averages from polling group 538. By Election Day, Biden led by 11% in polls.

Throughout 2020, multiple Granite State polls had Biden leading Trump by as much as 19 points by the last week of October, according to an American Research Group poll. During that same period, polls by Saint Anselm College Survey Center and the University of New Hampshire Survey Center had Biden leading by eight points. Each of the three polls had Libertarian Party nominee Jo Jorgensen at 1%.

Jorgensen ended up leveraging just 1.6% on Election Day, nearly on target to where polls projected.

Since polls began surveying a Harris candidacy the second week of July, the vice president has yet to poll beyond seven points above Trump. Harris is averaging at 4.9% above the former president between 10 polls conducted between July and the present, according to 538.

It remains unclear if a Kennedy campaign suspension and endorsement of Trump would move the needle in Trump’s direction. However, between historical averages and a potential Kennedy bump, New Hampshire could again be in play come November.

DON’T MISS OUT

Be the first to know about the latest news, giveaways, events, and updates from The Black Chronicle!

We don’t spam! Read our privacy policy for more info.

spot_imgspot_img
spot_img

Hot this week

African and Caribbean Nations Call for Reparations for Slave Trade, Propose Global Fund

Nations across Africa and the Caribbean, deeply impacted by...

Health care company agrees to pay $22.5 million to settle claims of over billing

A health care company agreed to pay nearly $22.5...

Sports betting expert offers advice on paying taxes for gambling winnings

(The Center Square) – Tax season is underway, and...

Entertainment district benefits don’t outweigh the cost, economists say

(The Center Square) — Weeks later, after more details...

Business association ‘disappointed’ by WA L&I’s proposed workers comp rate hike

(The Center Square) – The Association of Washington Business...

Poll: Brown leads Moreno as election nears

(The Center Square) – Incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Sherrod...

House Ways and Means committee to hear testimony on tax reform

(The Center Square) − The House Ways and Means...

Federal prosecutors face challenges in Madigan’s corruption trial

(The Center Square) – After investigating Illinois' former House...

Election 2024: Allen hopes to win sixth consecutive term

(The Center Square) – Republican incumbent Rick Allen is...

One California city had enough of taking in others’ homeless. Newsom has other plans.

(The Center Square) - Homelessness in Norwalk, California spiked...

Refunds available for window treatment scam

(The Center Square) – Arizona customers who did not...

Marysville School Districts switches superintendents amid financial woes

(The Center Square) – The Marysville School District has...

More like this
Related

Poll: Brown leads Moreno as election nears

(The Center Square) – Incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Sherrod...

House Ways and Means committee to hear testimony on tax reform

(The Center Square) − The House Ways and Means...

Federal prosecutors face challenges in Madigan’s corruption trial

(The Center Square) – After investigating Illinois' former House...

Election 2024: Allen hopes to win sixth consecutive term

(The Center Square) – Republican incumbent Rick Allen is...