(The Center Square) — New York stands to lose two seats in Congress after the 2030 census with the blue state’s population growth lagging far behind the rest of the country, according to a new study.
The report by the nonpartisan Redistricting Network suggests that New York could lose nearly 10% of its congressional representation after the next decennial count in 2030, which could cost the Empire State two seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.
But New York isn’t alone among Democratic-led states that could take a hit after the next census count. California, which could also see a 10% reduction, could lose up to four seats, according to the group. Rhode Island could lose one seat while Illinois could lose 2 seats.
Meanwhile, Texas and Florida are both expected to gain another 4 seats in Congress after the next census, with the group’s analysis projecting increases of 10% and 14%, respectively.
The Redistricting Network’s analysis — compiled by Carnegie Mellon University researcher Dr. Jonathan Cervas — is the latest to highlight the impact of New York’s high tax burden on outmigration and investment. Several recent studies have shown the state is losing more people than it gains from outmigration to lower tax states like Florida, South Carolina and Texas.
The U.S. Constitution requires states to redraw congressional districts every decade to account for changes in population. The numbers also guide the drawing of state legislative districts and local election precincts. New York lost one of its 27 House districts based on the 2020 population count. To be sure, the state has lost congressional seats following about every decennial count since 1950, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.
Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul has blamed a lack of housing as the primary reason New Yorkers are fleeing the state, making the case for expanding housing stock and making existing homes more affordable.
But Republicans have long argued that New York’s outmigration is being driven largely by the state’s highest-in-the-nation tax burden, a business sector struggling under excessive regulations and rising labor costs.
“Kathy Hochul’s New York ranks right at the bottom of the pack with Democrat-run Illinois and California as Americans continue to vote with their feet, fleeing blue states and moving to red states,” NY GOP spokesman David Laska said in a statement. “Who could blame them? One-party Democratic rule has made New York the most taxed, least affordable, least free state in America.”
Laska said the outmigration issue is one of the reasons New Yorkers “are going to fire Kathy Hochul, elect Bruce Blakeman and put New York on a path to growth, affordability and prosperity.”
The group’s analysis comes as Hochul pushes for mid-decade plans to redraw the New York’s congressional districts to favor Democrats as the Texas’ Legislature moves ahead with a GOP-led redistricting plan. Her declaration prompted a backlash from Republicans and good government groups like the nonpartisan watchdog Reinvent Albany, which called the plan a “race to the bottom” that will disenfranchise the state’s voters.
