In the summer before an election, it’s far too easy to focus on the things that divide our country. From foreign policy to taxes to the next occupant of the White House, there’s no shortage of topics where America is struggling to find common ground. However, there is one area where people of all ideological stripes are united: support for the freedom to marry.
It wasn’t always this way. Over the last two decades, our country has experienced the largest and fastest shift in the history of mass opinion on the topic of marriage equality. Consider: in 2004, the year Massachsuetts issused the first same-sex marriage licenses, Gallup polling showed support at 42%. By 2023, that number had leapt to 71%, not only an all-time high, but also an average annual increase of nearly 1.5 percentage points over the last 20 years.
Compare that seismic shift to abortion, where attitudes have hardly moved during the last half century. In 1975, about half of Americans said abortion should only be legal under certain circumstances, and in 2023 it was still at 51%.
Not a single demographic is immune from this mass turnaround in marriage equality, even among demographics most initially opposed. In 2004, Republicans opposed same-sex marriage by 59 points. Today, the deficit has disappeared and a plurality of the GOP are in favor.
While moment in time polls can vary, the last 20 years worth of data shows only continued forward momentum for same-sex marriage.
There are a number of factors that account for this stunning turnaround.
For one, the number of Americans identifying as LGBTQ has more than doubled from 3.5% in 2012 to 7.6% in 2022, including a remarkable 20% of Generation Z. In 2008 only about half of the country knew someone that was gay, lesbian or bisexual, but in 2020 that had grown to 64% in the American National Election Studies (ANES). As the numbers have grown, so too has the societal comfort level.
For another, as the population gets younger, minds are changing. There is at least plurality support for marriage equality in every single generation, from the Silent Generation at 45% support and 36% oppose, to Gen Z at 82% support and 7% oppose.
Most importantly, the arguments of opponents of marriage equality have not held up over time. Not only did the predicted harm to the institution of marriage or children not materialize, both actually benefited from same-sex marriage – and in areas of life near and dear to the hearts of conservative voters.
A landmark new report from RAND underscores this point. Looking across the most comprehensive, analytical, data-driven studies, RAND found, among other things, a 1.25% increase in different-sex couples in the first year after same-sex couples received the freedom to marry. Furthermore, same-sex marriage led to higher adoption rates, health care savings and more people on private health care coverage.
As the indisputable benefits of the freedom to marry have taken root, its acceptance and popularity has taken off. Critics have been silenced. Opponents have become supporters. A practice once considered controversial is now ingrained into the fabric of our society.
These shifts can be seen in more than just polls; they are also having a profound effect on policy making. Consider the 2022 Respect For Marriage Act (RMA) that passed with the support of 12 Republican Senators and 47 GOP members of the House. The law grew out of a desire to protect the 2015 Obergefell v. Hodges decision legalizing marriage equality at the federal level – a ruling that one Supreme Court justice suggested the Court “should reconsider.”
Reflecting Americans’ super-majority support for marriage equality, the bipartisan RMA ensures that the right to same-sex and interracial marriages would remain part of federal statute law, regardless of future rulings from the Court, while also protecting religious liberty.
Just like the majority of the country, the Supreme Court should move on from marriage debates. During the last two decades, more than one million same-sex couples have been free to enjoy the benefits of marriage – improving not just their own lives, but also our society as a whole. Many started loving families and raised children, driving up adoption rates and leading to stronger families and communities.
Even in a divided America, the fact that we have come so far in our support for the freedom to marry – to a point where a super-majority of Americans support it – is something for which we can all be proud.
