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Analysis: Trump gained in less expected areas of Wisconsin in 2024 election

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(The Center Square) – President-elect Donald Trump’s popularity grew in a lot of areas in the 2024 election in Wisconsin.

But some of those shifts were less expected, such as a 3% shift toward Trump in the state’s youngest set of wards while the oldest shifted just 1% toward Trump in 2024, according to Marquette Law School Lubar Center Research Fellow John Johnson.

Overall, Trump increased his vote share from 2020 in 70% of Wisconsin municipalities and 62% of wards, Johnson wrote.

Trump was declared the winner in Wisconsin and leads 49.71% to Vice President Kamala Harris’ 48.84% as of Thursday morning.

“What the 2024 Republican swing lacked in magnitude it made up in its breadth across Wisconsin,” Johnson wrote. “Communities of all kinds moved toward the Republicans. Trump improved over 2020 in all but four of the state’s counties.”

On racial lines, one significant change came in Hispanic wards with the Democratic margin going from 61 points in those wards in 2016 to 52 in 2020 to 42 points in 2024.

The same was true in the poorest fifth of wards in the state, where the Democrats won by 19 points in 2016, 6 in 2020 and 12 in 2024.

“A big part of why Trump won Wisconsin in 2024 is that he continued to make gains in the wards with the lowest levels of college education, while Harris only matched Biden’s performance in the most educated wards,” Johnson wrote.

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