(The Center Square) – Just two Democrats have won North Carolina in presidential elections since 1964, and President Joe Biden doesn’t appear likely as a third.
Yet another poll comparing expected nominees for the general election puts former President Donald Trump ahead of Biden, this time 50%-41%. Bloomberg and Morning Consult conducted the poll and released results Thursday morning, five days ahead of the Democrats’ and Republicans’ primaries.
While pitched as a toss-up state, North Carolinians have chosen every Republican candidate starting with Richard Nixon in 1968 with exception of Jimmy Carter (1976, not 1980) and Barack Obama (2008, not 2012). Trump beat Biden 49.9%-48.6% with more than 5.5 million votes cast in 2020, and he turned back Hillary Clinton 49.8%-46.2% with more than 4.7 million votes cast in 2016.
The last Republican 9% better than his opponent was incumbent George W. Bush in 2004, who topped John Kerry with North Carolinian John Edwards on his ticket 56%-43.6%.
In addition to the Bloomberg/Morning Consult analysis, the Hill/Emerson poll released Feb. 21 had Trump beating Biden 47%-44%. The ECU poll, released Feb. 16, had Trump beating Biden 47%-44%. The Meredith poll, released Feb. 5, had Trump beating Biden 44%-39%.
The early voting period for the primaries ends at 3 p.m. Saturday. Polls open at 6:30 a.m. Tuesday and close at 7:30 p.m. The state is part of Super Tuesday, with 14 states having primaries or caucuses for both Democrats and Republicans, and a 15th state – Alaska – also having a GOP primary.
In this year’s election cycle, voters are choosing the much-ballyhooed presidential race plus 14 congressional seats, all 10 Council of State seats led by the gubernatorial race, and all 170 seats of the two General Assembly chambers. There are scores of other down-ballot races in counties and communities.
Through Saturday, more than 7.4 million are registered to vote. Unaffiliated voters (36.8%) make up a larger bloc than do Democrats (32.3%) or Republicans (30%). Voters can choose which primary to vote in, but no more than one.
