(The Center Square) – Registered Democrats by North Carolina voter registration have decreased by a number larger than the increase in overall registrations since the last presidential election.
When President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris defeated incumbents Donald Trump and Mike Pence on Nov. 7, 2020, the state’s total registrations were more than 7.3 million. It’s up 218,319 since, less than 18,000 from 7.6 million for what is considered one of seven battleground states in 2024.
Those registered as Democrats are down 222,487 in the same time, to just over 2.4 million. The unaffiliated voting bloc has climbed 391,989 and Republicans are up 35,001, according to the State Board of Elections.
In a state of 10.8 million population, unaffiliated voters make up 37.5% of the voter registrations, Democrats 31.7% and Republicans 29.9%.
The Grand Old Party was below 30% at the 2018 midterms (29.8%), 30.3% at the November 2020 election and 30% at the 2022 midterms.
For Democrats, it’s been a two decades trend. On Jan. 1, 2004, the state’s more than 5 million voters were 47.6% registered Democrats, 34.4% Republicans and 17.7% unaffiliated. The unaffiliated percentage has increased at every two-year November election since, the Democrats have decreased at each, and Republicans’ percentage has steadily come down with just two of the nine occasions modestly higher than the previous two-year marks.
The data is released at the end of each week.
Election Day is 13 weeks away on Nov. 5. Tuesday marks 91 days away, with 32 days until absentee by mail ballots go out Sept. 6, and 72 days until in-person early voting begins on Oct. 17.
In addition to the voter registration trends, a longer historical pattern suggests the state votes Republican for president, and Democrat for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general. Exceptions are rare in the last half century.
Democratic presidential candidates since Lyndon B. Johnson’s 1964 triumph have only won the state twice in the last 14 cycles – Jimmy Carter in 1976, and Barack Obama in 2008. Each failed to win the state four years later.
Since Daniel Lindsay Scott Russell’s 1897-1901 tenure, the governor’s office has had a Democrat every year sans Baptist Oliver Max Gardner (1929-33), and Republicans James Holshouser (1973-77), Jim Martin (1985-93) and Pat McCrory (2013-16).
Unlike some states, lieutenant governors are not coupled with governors as a ticket. Yet, there’s been just three Republicans since Russell closed the 19th century – Robinson and Dan Forest the last 12 years, and Jim Gardner (1989-93) more than 30 years ago.
The last Democrat to win lieutenant governor was Walter Dalton in 2008.
James Carson (1974-75) is the only Republican since Robert Douglas (1900-01) to be attorney general. Sixteen different Democrats have held the position since the beginning of the 20th century.
North Carolina has 16 electoral college votes and is considered one of seven key battleground states representing 93 electoral college votes. The others are Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (six).
