(The Center Square) – An analysis of early voting trends indicates that significantly more people voted in the Democratic primary than in the Republican primary during the early voting period.
The primaries are open, meaning any registered voter may vote in either party primary but they may then only vote in that party’s runoff election.
There are more than 18.6 million people registered to vote in Texas, according to the Secretary of State’s Office. Early voting went from Feb. 17- 27. The primary election is March 3.
Several key races are on the ballot including one for U.S. Senate, all congressional seats including six being vacated by outgoing Republicans, all state legislative seats, the governor, lt. governor and several statewide offices. There are also 10 propositions on the Republican primary ballot and 13 on the Democratic primary ballot, The Center Square reported.
“The 2026 Primary has already boosted Democratic turnout enough to translate into at least 480,349 net Democratic votes in November,” Ross Hunt with Hunt Research, said in a March 1 report. “Voters in many swing constituencies key to Republican victory this fall have chosen to vote in the Democratic Primary rather than in the Republican Primary by a margin of nearly 3:1.”
“The extremely high turnout in the 2026 Democratic Primary is a code red alert for Texas Republicans: to hang on to newly drawn Congressional Districts, hold swing State House seats, and avoid defeat in statewide races, Republicans will need to do everything right this fall: we will need to select the best nominees for the General Election, maximize GOP turnout, practice intense message discipline, and have a clear-eyed and dispassionate understanding of where the new front line of defense stands after March 3rd.”
He also notes that primary elections are a leading indicator of voter sentiment in the general election because they reveal which “party has a level of enthusiasm sufficient to break previous models of voter turnout and how voter constituencies that are likely to decide the outcome of the General Election are leaning.”
Political consultant Derek Ryan said based on data he’d collected from counties, and with nearly all major counties reporting, more than 1,473,932 people voted in the Democratic Primary and more than 1,269,056 voted in the Republican Primary as of Friday afternoon, when the polls were still open.
According to VoteHub, “By our count, the Democratic primary is seeing a clear ballot edge over the Republican primary,” including absentee ballots filed. By the end of early voting, it noted, “Democrats pass 1.5 million ballots cast in Texas in our ongoing review of county rosters vs. the state absentee file.” Those voting in the Democratic primary surpassed 1.5 million and Republicans nearly 1.3 million.
Hunt notes that Republican turnout “is by no means low” but Democratic turnout is “orders of magnitude higher.”
“Texas remains a fundamentally Republican state: no matter how high Democratic turnout goes on Tuesday, there will still be more Republican than Democratic primary voters in Texas,” Hunt adds. “The State’s ethos, tradition and outlook remain fundamentally in sync with the principles of the right.”
