(The Center Square) – Republican candidate Karrin Taylor Robson dropping out of the Arizona gubernatorial race benefits U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Gilbert, more than U.S. Rep. David Schweikert, R-Scottsdale, according to Mike Noble, CEO of Noble Predictive Insights.
Earlier this month, Taylor Robson announced she would suspend her gubernatorial campaign.
She called the decision “not an easy one” and said she “would do anything to protect [Arizona] from the growing radicalism of the left.”
“We cannot afford a divisive Republican primary that drains resources and turns into months of intraparty attacks. It only weakens our conservative cause and gives the left exactly what they want: a fractured Republican Party heading into November,” Taylor Robson stated.
“With so much on the line in 2026, I am not willing to contribute to that outcome,” she added.
The Republican and Democratic primaries for the gubernatorial race will take place July 21. Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs is running unopposed in the primary. The winner of the GOP primary will face Hobbs in the Nov. 3 general election.
As to why Biggs is in a better position than Schweikert, Noble noted Biggs has the endorsement of President Donald Trump.
Trump had previously endorsed both Taylor Robson and Biggs for the Arizona gubernatorial race.
Noble noted Trump’s brand is “very popular” with the Arizona Republican Party.
When Taylor Robson was still in the race, there was “no statistical difference” among the three candidates in going up against Hobbs in a general election, Noble said.
However, based on polling data, Noble said Hobbs is in a “pretty good spot.”
“She has the advantage right now,” Noble told The Center Square.
Hobbs has the upper hand over the Republican gubernatorial candidates because she doesn’t have to face any primary challengers, Noble said.
The governor announced in January that she had raised nearly $15 million for her gubernatorial campaign.
Noble said there is a “huge enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans” nationwide, citing special elections in which Democrats have been outperforming their 2024 numbers by about 13 points.
“The momentum is definitely behind Democrats right now, “ he explained.
In Taylor Robson’s announcement, she told her supporters to “stay engaged, stay involved, and stay focused on the mission ahead.”
“Arizona is worth fighting for, and this election will determine the direction of our state for years to come,” she explained.
Noble told The Center Square that it “was too early to tell” which candidate would receive the most support from Taylor Robson supporters, but he said it is “more likely” that Schweikert would receive their support rather than Biggs.
The last time a Republican faced Hobbs in a general election was Kari Lake in 2022, who lost the election by 17,117 votes.
Noble said Lake was popular among Arizona GOP voters but not among independent voters.
