(The Center Square) – If forecasts are correct, 2024 will be a year marked by numerous economic and political challenges.
Andrew Yang, former presidential candidate and founder of the Forward Party, recently shared his predictions for the upcoming year and his aspirations for Forward’s role in the general and local elections.
While Yang thinks it’s time to pull back in terms of the economy, on the political front he believes it’s time to move forward with new leadership.
Yang was joined on his podcast by Zach Graumann, who served as Yang’s campaign manager during his 2020 presidential run and he is currently serving in that capacity for U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minnesota.
Yang predicts a mild recession, citing early signs of auto, credit card, and student loan payment delinquencies. He also highlights imbalances in commercial real estate, a stagnant real estate market and startups in survival mode due to scarce cash.
The economic downturn, he says, creates a “rockier” political climate for an incumbent. While a Trump-Biden rematch currently seems likely, they predict the president will not secure the Democratic nomination.
With President Joe Biden’s current approval rating at 38%, coupled with his advanced age, the door for third-party candidates might open, they say.
Third-party candidates will reach double digits in the general election, Yang predicts – their highest share of the vote since 1992, when Ross Perot garnered 18.9%. In his blog, he says, “with 75% of Americans thinking we are on the wrong track and 65% despairing about the two-party system, a lot of people will be willing to vote differently this year.”
The first indication of whether the Democratic Party will have a coronation or a competition will be during the New Hampshire primary election on Jan. 23, Yang said. Rep. Phillips is currently polling at 21% in the state and he will be on the ballot in at least 40 other states. Graumann believes this is enough to win.
Yang believes Biden is an “historically weak candidate” and will lose to Trump in the general election.
“The Democratic party owes us, at a minimum, a real competitive process, and the best possible candidate to defeat Trump – “and Joe Biden ain’t it,” he said.
Attributing Biden’s plummeting numbers to his decision to run again, Yang said, “Do you love your job as president … or do you love the country? In this case, loving the country means getting out of the way and letting someone else run.”
“Overstaying your welcome is a disease in American politics,” he added.
In the field of Republicans running, former President Trump holds a solid lead, and both Yang and Graumann view Nikki Haley as the most viable contender.
Yang predicts technology will impact politics with the use of AI-generated content showing up in social media feeds towards the end of the election cycle, causing confusion and turmoil.
Graumann agreed, noting the tactic – if used during multi-state primaries – would be ineffective due to a healthy public backlash. However, he says, late in the game, “where it’s winner take all, Super Tuesday, or the national election,” savvy political operatives are likely to create deepfake videos or phone calls that have their opponent saying or doing something that crosses a line with voters. Since it happens at the last minute, it’s not possible to respond adequately before election day.
Yang said this will also make it easier to argue there was fraud, or something was rigged or stolen.
In addition to Phillips, Forward is supporting local candidates in swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
Forward bills itself as centrist and is working toward achieving legal party recognition.
Forward affiliates are elected officials who retain their party registration as Democrat or Republican, but publicly join with Forward – pledging to govern according to their value-based platform.
