(The Center Square) – For just the third time in nine polls since their debate, Kamala Harris is not trailing Donald Trump in polling of battleground North Carolina voters.
The vice president isn’t winning this time either.
Harris, nominee of the Democratic Party after incumbent President Joe Biden stepped aside on July 21, and Trump are tied at 48% in the sampling by the Meredith Poll of 802 likely voters conducted a week ago, from Sept. 17-20. The margin of error is +/- 3.5%.
Trump, the 78-year-old Republican former president, has led six other statewide polls and trailed in just one. Friday’s result was the second time they were evenly deadlocked, though in all nine neither has performed outside the margin of error – meaning they are 9-for-9 in statistical ties.
Pollsters say Harris, 59, scores well with Democrats, Blacks, women, young voters, educated voters and in urban areas. Trump, the poll says, is strongest with Republicans, men, rural voters, and older voters.
Meredith gave a small advantage to Harris in the battle for unaffiliated suburban voters.
North Carolina has more than 7.6 million registered voters, according to State Board of Elections data through Saturday. It is among the seven consensus battleground states representing 93 electoral college votes. The breakdown is Pennsylvania 19, North Carolina 16, Georgia 16, Michigan 15, Arizona 11, Wisconsin 10 and Nevada six.
The poll’s start and finish sandwiched a Thursday in which the governor’s race was jolted by a report from CNN damaging Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson’s bid against Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein. Respondents chose Stein 50%-40%, and Meredith said the differences in timing was Stein 50%-42% before the news broke, and 50%-37% after, meaning Robinson lost support but Stein did not gain.
“The CNN story clearly had an impact on voter perceptions, but Robinson’s campaign was already struggling against the Stein campaign,” Dr. David McLennan, director of the Meredith Poll at Meredith University in Raleigh, said in a release. “It is worth noting, however, that we have seen this story before in North Carolina governor’s races. The Republican candidate, like Dan Forest, was running well behind Roy Cooper in September and October polls, only to lose on Election Day by 4.5 points. This shows the power of political partisanship in North Carolina.”
To wit, Trump significantly outperformed polls in 2016 and 2020 winning the state.
Those polled, by 49%-43%, approved the General Assembly’s change in abortion law. It is illegal after 12 weeks with some limited exceptions.
Absentee voting by mail is underway. Early in-person voting begins Oct. 17 and Election Day is Nov. 5. The voter registration deadline is Oct. 11, though same-day registration is available. Absentee ballots can be requested through Oct. 29.
