(The Center Square) – Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in a head-to-head matchup poll in several swing states, including Arizona.
A Morning Consult poll among registered voters shows Trump with 46% and Biden with 42%. Their numbers are the same in Michigan and similar in Wisconsin. But Trump leads Biden by 9% in North Carolina, 6% in Georgia and 3% in Nevada. However, Trump only leads Biden by 2% in Pennsylvania. The margins of error in polls range from 3-5% and asked at least 437 people per state from October to December.
“I mean within that margin of error, especially that 4%, especially in Arizona, definitely don’t take anything for granted,” Arizona state Rep. Austin Smith, R-Wittmann, told The Center Square. “I think the trajectory of the state political landscape changed a little bit since 2020, obviously in 2022 as well. But Republicans and the Trump campaign shouldn’t take anything for granted.”
“I mean, it’s gonna be, I think even closer than that in Arizona with the amount of money that the Biden campaign’s already pouring into the state,” he added. “The lack of the national kind of Republican apparatus, attention on Arizona, other than groups like mine at Turning Point Action, and some other conservative organizations, it’s gonna come down to the wire again. And the ballot-chasing initiatives for both sides is gonna be instrumental and we could be back down to another 10,000-vote race in Arizona in 2024. I think that’s very plausible.”
Some Democrats are skeptical of the polling of an election that is not until November, but remain confident in Biden’s re-election odds.
“I think the most important thing to note is that polling is fairly unreliable this early out from the election, always has been, probably always will be,” local Democratic activist Elijah Watson told The Center Square.
“I do think as well that when Arizonans look at the investments in infrastructure, into creating jobs through the CHIPS Act, and lowering inflation which we are finally starting to see come down through the Inflation Reduction Act, all of which have been done only in four years by President Biden bipartisanly even with a dysfunctional Congress: these are the things voters care about and what will ultimately get Biden over the finish line in 2024,” Watson continued.
Trump still has to clear the Republican field to secure the nomination. Most national and early state polling indicates that he is significantly ahead of his opponents, which include former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy.
On the Democratic side, author Marianne Williamson and Minnesota Congressman Dean Philips are considered the only major challengers to the incumbent president.
RealClearPolling shows Trump leading by a narrow 2.3% average against Biden based on polls taken from Dec. 4-18 nationally. For Arizona, the RCP average from Oct. 22 to Dec. 6 is 4.8% in favor of Trump. The former president won the state in 2016, but Biden won Arizona in 2020.