(The Center Square) – The Iowa caucus is not the most reliable predictor of who will be the Republican nominee, but it fares better for Democrats, according to a study by WalletHub.
Republican voters will be the first in the U.S. to choose their pick for president in the caucuses held at 99 precincts on Monday night. Democrats are caucusing by mail and will reveal the results on March 5, Super Tuesday.
WalletHub compared demographic characteristics and public opinion between Iowa and the United States to determine how closely Iowa resembles the rest of the nation in sociodemographics, economics, education, religion and public opinion.
The study concluded that Iowa is an 89% match with U.S demographics.
On the Democratic side, 63.6 % of Iowa caucus winners have gone on to become the nominee, but for the Republicans, it’s 44.4%.
“The Iowa caucus is the first stop on the road to presidential nominations, but a victory here by no means guarantees the ultimate winner,” said Wallethub analyst Cassandra Happe. “Interestingly, although Iowa’s demographics are more in line with Republicans, the state’s results are actually significantly better at predicting the Democratic nominee.”
When it comes to mirroring the nation, Iowa most resembles the nation in working hours with a 99.5% similarity, according to the study. The unemployment rate is 99.1% similar, followed by school enrollment at 99% and importance of religion at about the same percentage.
“If the goal is to find someone who best represents Republican voters, then it makes sense for Iowa to be first in the nation for the Republican Party, because Iowa demographically is closest to the Republican Party base. Contrary-wise, Iowa makes no sense for the Democratic Party,” said Herman Mark Schwartz, a professor at the University of Virginia and a WalletHub expert.
Politically, Iowa is a state that is split evenly between Democrat and Republican voters at 42% each, with 16% independent voters, according to WalletHub.
The winner of the majority vote for each party usually comes down to the best ground game, according to David Schultz, a professor at Hamline University.
“A lot of time is spent calling people, making sure they will show up, and making sure they have the time and resources to attend…it is mostly about more personal contact and connections than it is an air wars or media-driven campaign,” Schultz said. “So much of the Iowa process is very time-consuming in terms of what I and others call the ground wars.”
The Center Square Voter’s Voice poll shows former President Donald Trump with a wide lead over former South Carolina Gov. and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who moved ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
