(The Center Square) – Campaign finance reports for the third quarter hint at trouble for congressional incumbents ahead of the 2024 election.
Congressional redistricting maps unveiled this week are expected to make reelection difficult for Democratic Reps. Wiley Nickel in District 13, Jeff Jackson in District 14, Kathy Manning in District 6, and Don Davis in District 1. Three of those four are trailing their Republican challengers in fundraising, some by a wide margin.
Nickel raised $356,239 during the quarter ending Sept. 30 and spent $132,695, leaving the first year congressman with $933,349 cash on hand. To date, Nickel has raised about $1.3 million, and spent $468,831.
His Republican challenger, state Rep. Erin Pare of Wake County, raised $600,385 and recorded $400,000 in loans over the same time period. She reported $596,394 cash on hand, with only about $4,000 spent during the reporting period. Three other Republicans vying for the seat raised roughly $130,000 combined.
In District 14, Republican challenger Pat Harrington reported $752,795 raised and a $500,000 loan, compared to $116,207 raised by Jackson. Harrington reported $744,966 cash on hand versus $706,894 for Jackson, a freshman congressman who is widely speculated to run for attorney general next year. Campaign finance records show Harrington has spent only $9,786, while Jackson reported $72,055 in spending.
Businesswoman Sandy Smith led fundraising in District 1 with $341,470 and a $250,000 loan, while first-year incumbent Davis reported $261,022 raised in the third quarter. Republican Fred Von Canon also raised $259,400 and reported a $200,000 loan, while Republican Christine Villaverde raised $21,575. Smith reported $314,243 cash on hand after spending $171,723, compared to Davis’ $491,142 in cash and $54,288 in spending.
Manning was the only vulnerable Democratic incumbent among the four that raised more than her Republican challenger, taking in $142,381 compared to $52,574 reported by combat veteran Christian Castelli. Manning reported $97,764 in spending and $627,640 in cash, dwarfing Castelli’s $25,310 in spending and $63,387 in cash.
The numbers highlight the stiff competition as lawmakers in Raleigh make a third attempt in as many years to redraw political boundaries. North Carolina has seven Republicans and Democrats each, an even balance even computer simulations have a difficult time reaching.
Political observers suggest one of two redistricting proposals expected to be approved next week will change that ratio to 10-4 or 11-3 in favor of Republicans.
The potential shift in North Carolina is drawing national attention amid a slim 221-212 Republican edge in the lower chamber, with two vacancies. National analysis finds Republican incumbents occupy 14 of the top 20 seats most likely to flip in 2024.
A Hotline’s analysis by the National Journal found 29 Democrats deemed vulnerable by the Democratic National Campaign Committee raised an average of $482,000, with an average of just under $1.1 million cash on hand going into the fourth quarter.
That compares with an average of $639,000 raised by the 25 most endangered Republicans identified by the National Republican Congressional Committee, which had an average of $1.6 million in cash following the last reporting period.
