As of Oct. 11, former President Donald Trump leads in both RealClearPolitics’ Republican presidential primary polling average and PredictIt’s Republican presidential primary market.
Trump’s polling average currently stands at 58%, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 13%. No other candidate has more than a 10% polling average. In PredictIt’s Republican primary market, Trump’s share price is 73 cents while former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley’s share price is 11 cents. No other candidate has a share price at or above 10 cents.
A candidate’s polling average reflects an estimate of the vote share a candidate would receive if the election were held today, while a PredictIt share price roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of a candidate winning the election.
President Joe Biden leads both RCP’s Democratic primary polling average and PredictIt’s Democratic primary market. Biden has a 61% polling average. No other active Democratic primary candidate is polling at or above 10%. Biden has a 70 cent PredictIt share price. One other candidate has a share price at or above 10 cents. California Gov, Gavin Newsom stands at 21 cents.