(The Center Square) — Former President Donald Trump has lagged in all of Virginia Commonwealth University’s presidential polls this year, and he’s still behind Vice President Kamala Harris in the university’s latest poll of 2024 – but the gap has narrowed.
Concluded days before the vice presidential debate and released shortly after a University of Mary Washington poll with Trump trailing Harris by just one point, the latest VCU Commonwealth Poll showed Trump performing better than in its previous poll. In an end-of-summer poll, Harris led Trump by a whole ten points, 46%-36%. Now, she leads by six, 43%-37%.
While six points is still a sizable advantage and enough to win even with the poll’s margin of error of +/- 4.64, the results provide more fodder for those who have speculated that Virginia is still in play in this election.
Former Democratic Gov. L. Douglas Wilder, after whom VCU’s School of Government and Public Affairs is named, urged Democrats not to merely coast to the finish line.
“The slip in the Harris lead, though not alarming, should be a wake-up call, as the sampling error of plus or minus 4.64 sends a message,” Wilder said in a statement. “Independents could make a real difference. The race in Virginia could be decided by who gets their voters to turn out, and voting has already started.”
The poll revealed greater support for Harris among Democrats (86%) than for Trump with Republicans (79%), but Independents favored Trump 29% to 16%.
It also showed that 8% of all respondents were still undecided – 19% of Independents, 7.2% of Republicans and 4.2% of Democrats.
When asked what issue would most impact their vote, 33% of respondents indicated the rising cost of living, 20% designated reproductive rights and 12% immigration.
Respondents favored Trump on the economy, 42%-38%, same with immigration. They trusted Harris more on reproductive rights, 49%-23%
