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Year in Review: Historical patterns continue in elections

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(The Center Square) – The 10 executive offices of the state changed from a 6-4 Republican edge to 5-5, and former President Donald Trump made North Carolina one of seven battleground victories worth a 93-0 edge in electoral college votes.

The election year of 2024 popped and sizzled as most presidential year cycles do, though not all tied to the top of the ticket. The reason more so for the state is because of so many races, the longest ballot of every four years.

North Carolinians gave their choice for president of the next four years and 14 members to the U.S. House of Representatives for two-year terms. Also on the ballot were the four-year terms in the Council of State that includes the governor; lieutenant governor; commissioners of agriculture and insurance; the secretaries of state and labor; auditor; treasurer; and superintendent of public instruction.

In the General Assembly, all seats and two-year terms were available in the 50-member Senate and 120-seat House of Representatives. Judicial races headlined by one state Supreme Court seat, one statewide referendum, and local commissions, councils and boards also dotted the landscape.

Donald Trump

The nation’s 45th president campaigned in the state Wednesday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday ahead of the election, opting for locations across the state including less populated eastern North Carolina cities Rocky Mount and Kinston. With voter turnout at 73.7%, or more than 5.7 million, Trump prevailed over Vice President Kamala Harris 50.9%-47.7%.

Since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, the only Democrats in 15 election cycles to win the state are Jimmy Carter (1976) and Barack Obama (2008). Neither repeated four years later. Trump’s third win breaks the tie for most times a Republican has won the state on a post-Civil War short list with George W. Bush, George H.W. Bush, Ronald Reagan, Richard Nixon and Ulysses S. Grant.

Congress

Special masters were involved for redistricting maps used in the 2022 midterms and delivered a 7-7 split representation to the U.S. House of Representatives. Back with the Legislature as constitutionally mandated, consensus opinion beforehand was the maps had one competitive district and 13 expected outcomes.

Rep. Don Davis, a Democrat, won the hotly-contested 1st Congressional District over Laurie Buckhout, keeping the seat from a Republican to continue a pattern dating to 1882.

Republicans won 10 seats, helping their party maintain the majority 220-215.

Incumbent Democratic Reps. Deborah Ross in the 2nd, Valerie Foushee in the 4th and Alma Adams in the 12th also secured reelection.

Republicans returning to Washington are Reps. Dr. Greg Murphy (3rd), Virginia Foxx (5th), David Rouzer (7th), Richard Hudson (9th) and Chuck Edwards (11th). Newcomers are Addison McDowell (6th), Rev. Mark Harris (8th), Pat Harrigan (10th), Brad Knott (13th) and record-setting state House Speaker Tim Moore (14th).

Governor

Josh Stein is the third consecutive Democratic attorney general to ascend to governor of North Carolina. Stein, 58, defeated Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson in a race called by multiple outlets from just minutes after the polls closed through the next 45 minutes.

Stein’s winning difference was 54.9%-40.1%. He joins Mike Easley (attorney general 1993-2001, governor 2001-09) and Roy Cooper (attorney general 2001-17, governor 2017-present) in keeping a 21st century pattern alive. Only three Republicans since the 1900 election have become governor.

Robinson, on Sept. 19, fell victim to reporting by CNN involving a porn site chat room more than a decade ago long before he rose to viral fame on the strength of speaking to the Greensboro City Council during time for public comments. Before the bombshell report, he had been sliding in the polls since the summer. Earlier in the year, he had held a modest polling lead.

Council of State

Democrat Jeff Jackson defeated Republican Dan Bishop 51%-49% in the nation’s only matchup of sitting U.S. House of Representatives members in a battle to be state attorney general. Had Bishop won, he would have been the first Republican to do so since Zeb Walser in 1896.

Following the footsteps of her father, Democrat Rachel Hunt defeated Hal Weatherman and is headed to the lieutenant governor’s office. Trailblazing Democrat Elaine Marshall won her eighth term for secretary of state, Republican Steve Troxler his sixth for agriculture commissioner.

The rest of the Council of State will include Republican Mike Causey, insurance commissioner; Republican Luke Farley, secretary of labor; Republican Dave Boliek, auditor; Republican Brad Briner, treasurer; and Democrat Mo Green, superintendent of public instruction.

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