The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic this year.
With El Niño expected to develop during the hurricane season, driving warmer sea surface temperatures and weaker trade winds, NOAA said this week it predicts a 55% chance of the hurricane season having fewer storms than normal.
“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”
The agency forecasted a total of eight to 14 named storms with three to six of those becoming hurricanes. Average hurricane seasons have 14 named storms and seven hurricanes, according to NOAA.
“With the most advanced forecast modeling and hurricane tracking technologies, NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “Our experts are integrating cutting-edge tools to ensure communities in the path of storms receive the earliest, most accurate information possible.”
The state is poised to enter the season with its Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund (FHCF) in a “very strong” position, according to the latest report released this week.
Created in 1993 and meant to protect Florida’s insurance capacity, it provides reimbursement for part of residential property insurers’ hurricane losses.
The fund balance is a net of estimated total loss for hurricanes the year prior. Last year, Hurricane Ian cost the FHCF $7 billion, Hurricane Idalia $1 million, Hurricane Helene $10 million and Hurricane Milton $1 billion – a total loss of just over $8 billion for last year.
The hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. NOAA said it is 70% confident in its predicted ranges for storms this year and will be using uncrewed aircraft systems for the first time along with AI analysis for its forecasts.
“NOAA’s rapid integration of advanced technology, including AI-based weather models, drones, and next-generation satellite data will deliver actionable science to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of the American people,” said NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs, Ph.D. “These new capabilities, combined with the unmatched expertise of our National Weather Service forecasters, will produce the most accurate forecasts possible to protect communities in harm’s way.”
