(The Center Square) — Florida officials forecast that the state’s prison population will continue to grow for a third consecutive year.
The Florida Legislature’s Office of Economic and Demographic Research held a criminal justice conference on Friday to revise the forecasts for prison admissions and prison population in the Sunshine State.
Fiscal 2022-23 marked the second consecutive year prison admissions increased after years of decline. There were 27,891 admissions, a 7.7% increase over the previous year.
The conference forecast that Florida’s prison inmate population will increase over the next few years. Fiscal 2023-24 is expected to have a total population of 88,685 inmates, increasing to 94,315 by FY 2028-29.
Prison admissions are projected to remain relatively stable, sitting between 28,000 and 29,000 admissions per year respectively. Prison releases are forecast to climb, with fiscal 2023-24 projected 25,565 releases, while FY 2028-29 is projected to have 28,107 inmates released.
Since the last meeting in February, the conference’s report states that 12,239 people have been incarcerated in Florida’s prison system over the past five months. This figure was 1.7% above what was estimated. By June, the total prison population was 85,174, 0.3% below the estimate in February.
The conference found that Florida has to deal with some headwinds regarding the state’s court system, which has faced severe backlogs since the COVID-19 pandemic began in March of 2020. Continuing challenges in recruitment and hiring are also hindrances.
Analysts applied pre-pandemic growth rates to arrests from 2021 through to 2023, and it was found that prison admissions would have continued on its downward trend, regardless of the pandemic.
EDR noted that arrests are indicators of future prison admissions, taking around two years to work through the court system. They further stated that although arrests are returning to normal levels in Florida, the timing and level of future prison admissions are difficult to project because of the court delays.
Future forecasts for releases from incoming admissions are further complicated by the sentence lengths that defendants are receiving, which are experiencing upward and downward pressure, according to EDR’s data.
Based on available data and adjusting for errors, the conference projected only minor changes to Florida’s existing prison population forecast from February, including annual percentages.
