(The Center Square) – A report says an undercount of 750,000 Floridians in the 2020 Census cost the state one U.S. House seat, could cause titanic policy swings in a divided Congress, and could even affect presidential elections.
The report by Florida TaxWatch also says correcting the undercount with U.S. Census Bureau methodology would’ve shifted three U.S. seats from Democrat strongholds such as Colorado, Minnesota, and Rhode Island to Republican states such as Florida, Tennessee and Texas.
Using that methodology, Florida’s House delegation would be 29 seats instead of 28.
The Tallahassee-based nonprofit used the U.S. Census Bureau’s Post-Enumeration Survey to calculate which states would have lost or gained a seat if populations were more accurately counted during the 2020 Census.
Considering that the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill passed the U.S. House by a razor-slim 215-214 vote, the report says those lost House seats could have significant impacts on policy.
According to data from the U.S. Census, the average congressional district in the Sunshine State has 770,376 residents.
The undercount, which the report says was significant in five other states, also affects the Electoral College.
The report says three votes were taken away from GOP-majority states. Electoral College votes are based on the state’s number of senators and representatives, which are apportioned via the census.
The report also says the three lost electoral votes could’ve removed the power of the so-called “Blue Wall” of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to determine a presidential election. All three states were flipped by President Donald Trump in the 2024 election, but only by 0.9 to 2.1 percentage points.
A presidential candidate needs 270 electoral votes to prevail.
The 750,000 Floridians missed by the census represent 3.48% of the state’s population.
The report says “immigrant community hesitancy” is one reason for the undercount and says policymakers either need to develop strategies to more accurately count the population in the upcoming 2030 Census or restrict foreign nationals from participating.
