(The Center Square) – As the last few polls come out before Election Day 2024, Georgia is looking more and more favorable for former President Donald Trump.
Of the last dozen polls out of the state reported by Project 538, the Republican has led them all. While many were well within the statistical margin of error, he led some by as much as 3% to 5%.
Vice President Kamala Harris, ascending to be the Democrats’ candidate when President Joe Biden quit 107 days prior to Election Day, has not led a poll in the state since mid-October. Of the last 20 polls, Harris led only two, Trump led 17, and they were tied in one.
Trump lost Georgia in 2020, only the second time since 1980 the Republican nominee didn’t carry the state.
In 2020, Biden began leading Trump on Oct. 1. By Election Day, he was 1.2% ahead of Trump. Yet, Trump still outperformed the polls, losing by only 11,000 votes or 0.2%.
Both candidates have made appearances in the state in the last few weeks, highlighting the significance and quest for its 16 electoral college votes.
Though Trump’s polling lead has remained steady, 270toWin still lists the state as a “toss-up.”
According to Project 538, Trump’s leading by an average of 1.9%. RealClear Polling also has Trump leading in the polling average in Georgia, though only by 1.4%.
Those percentages do not include a margin of error because they are an aggregate. Statistically and according to experts, the race is still considered a toss-up.
Yet, neither candidate is taking the foot off the gas, with both campaigns encouraging early voting.
This has led to historic turnout in the state, with more than 50% of the registered voters already casting their ballots.
This is especially notable as there are no state level executive offices on the ballot, nor U.S. Senate seats, and all 14 congressional seats are forecast to remain with current parties in a 9-5 edge to the Grand Old Party.
