(The Center Square) − One of the most alarming crime trends in New Orleans has been the rise in rape cases.
From 2014 to 2019, rapes in New Orleans increased at a compound annual growth rate of 25.97%, with 774 reported incidents in 2019 compared to just 244 in 2014.
The most dramatic surge was in August 2019, when 93 rapes were recorded in a single month. The increase reversed slightly after 2019, with rape cases declining to 681 in 2023, showing a negative CAGR of -3.15% from 2019 to 2023. Over the entire period from 2014 to 2023, the CAGR remains elevated at 12.08%.
Nationally, rape grew at a CAGR of 6.965% – from 108,388 in 2014 to 198,687 in 2023.
While the number of homicides remained relatively stable between 2014 and 2019, the homicide rate jumped significantly in the years following.
In 2022, homicides reached a peak, with 268 recorded for the year and 32 in June alone, marking the city’s highest point. From 2019 to 2023, homicides increased at a CAGR of 12.19%, growing from 125 homicides in 2019 to 198 by 2023. The overall CAGR from 2014 to 2023 stands at 2.98%.
Nationally, the homicide rate grew at a CAGR from 2014 to 2023 by 3.96%.
Robbery rates in New Orleans initially rose sharply in the early part of the decade, with 1,470 robberies recorded in 2014, up from 1,065 in 2012 – a CAGR of 17.32% over that two-year span. However, robberies began to drop after 2014. From 2014 to 2019, the CAGR for robberies was -7.18%, and from 2019 to 2023, robberies continued to fall at a CAGR of -10.29%. By 2023, there were just over 1,000 robberies reported, reflecting an overall decline.
Nationally, robbery rates from 2014 to 2023 fell by a CAGR of -4.28%.
Aggravated assaults have been one of the few crime categories that have consistently grown over the past decade. From 2014, when there were 1,906 assaults recorded, the number grew steadily to 3,427 by 2023. This reflects a CAGR of 6.74% for the period from 2014 to 2023, indicating a steady increase in violent altercations.
Nationally, aggravated assaults grew at a CAGR of 1.82%.
Overall, violent crime in New Orleans shows mixed trends. From 2014 to 2019, all violent crime rose at a CAGR of 3.27%, but this growth was followed by a decline between 2019 and 2023, with a negative CAGR of -3.74%.
Looking at the broader picture from 2014 to 2023, the CAGR for all violent crime is a relatively flat 0.96%. Nationally, all violent crime grew at a CAGR of 1.37.
The US population has grown at a CAGR of .57% from 2014 to 2022, and the New Orleans population has fallen at a CAGR of -.48% in the same time.
