(The Center Square) − The city of Central showcased its innovative flood warning system, a gamechanger for a community where 60% of structures were inundated during devastating 2016 floods.
Amite River Basin Drainage & Water Conservation District members asked about the possibility of statewide application, but civil engineer Stokka Brown said Louisiana’s flood forecasting system will require multiple models tailored to different watershed sizes.
Because no single model can accurately predict flooding across the entire state, larger-scale models — such as those used in the Watershed Initiative —will be necessary for broad predictions, while smaller, stream-specific models will provide local accuracy.
Rather than relying solely on AI-based predictions, officials are focusing on hydraulic modeling, which uses real-time rainfall data to simulate water movement.
However, traditional hydraulic models can take hours to run, making them impractical for forecasting. To address this, researchers have downscaled complex models used for drainage assessments into streamlined versions that can generate results in just 15 minutes.
These models will be layered based on geography. A model for the Amite River Basin, for example, wouldn’t provide precise data for smaller streams in central Louisiana, so separate models will be needed for major waterways like Ward Creek and Bayou Fountain.
At the state level, models will likely focus on Hydrologic Unit Code-8 watersheds, covering Louisiana’s most significant river systems to provide regional forecasts.
Central Mayor Wade Evans highlighted the system’s real-time capabilities, funded through one-time American Rescue Plan Act dollars.
“One of the things that’s most exciting is our flood warning system… citizens who are so worried about flooding, they can click on our website, go to the early flows modeling system, go to their location and see what the water is going to do in real time and forecasted,” Evans said.
The system, backed by hydrology equipment at every local watershed and bridge crossing, allows residents to check if floodwaters will threaten their homes, offering peace of mind during heavy rains.
Evans added that these efforts have lowered Central’s FEMA Community Rating System score to a five, cutting flood insurance premiums by 25% — a savings of over $1 million annually for residents.
Brown elaborated on the technical backbone of the system.
Following the 2016 floods, the city collected updated LiDAR data in early 2017, with a fresh high-resolution dataset completed in February 2025.
“We just finished… and we just got the processed data. So now the city has a new data set of what their terrain looks like,” Brown explained. “This data, combined with hydraulic models and real-time gage readings, powers the flood forecasting tool, which updates hourly with weather forecasts and historical rainfall.”
The system also tracks infrastructure changes, like the 13 miles of roadside ditches excavated since July 2024, ensuring models reflect current conditions.
The flood warning system, dubbed “Early Flows,” not only benefits residents but also equips emergency responders with predictive insights.
“We have a model that is proven and very effective and can be scaled to any size,” Evans said, offering to assist neighboring areas like Livingston Parish.
