(The Center Square) – Democrat Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley 50.4%-41.4% in the Wednesday release polling North Carolina’s leading hopefuls for the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Thom Tillis.
Libertarian Shannon Bray is also in the Nov. 3 election, though Opinion Diagnostics did not include him in the sampling Tuesday through Friday of last week. The margin of error is +/-3.5% for the 830 North Carolina voters surveyed by the Boston-based firm run by political advisors to Republican politicians in Massachusetts and North Carolina.
Tillis opted not to seek a third term for the six-year assignment. Republicans have 53 of the 100 seats in the chamber, and the purplish Old North State is viewed nationally as pivotal to the winning majority. It is one of nine battlegrounds for the 33 seats in play for the midterms, 20 occupied by the Grand Old Party and 13 by Democrats.
Since the major party candidates declared intent in July, through filing in December and easy March 3 primary wins, Cooper has consistently led Whatley in polls.
Cooper, from Raleigh, is a former two-term governor and four-term attorney general. Whatley, from Gastonia, is former chairman of both the Republican National Committee and the North Carolina Republican Party.
Cooper is campaigning on an economic record – arguably enabled by Republican policies that began to shift the state in 2011 – and job growth; healthcare protection inclusive of his desire to expand Medicaid; and says he’s bipartisan in approach to issues rather than an ally to a particular person or party.
Whatley is clear that, as he advocated for second-term Republican President Donald Trump leading the RNC, he is aligned with the “true America first” policy agenda. He also regularly stumps on border security and immigration; and lays great blame to Cooper in both of his roles as governor and attorney general for an approach that is “soft on crime.”
Through the March 31 first quarter, cash on hand advantage for Cooper over Whatley was $18.4 million to $2.5 million. Outside spending is fueling both candidates.
The campaigns are expected to generate a Senate spending record between $750 million and $1 billion. For context, that’s the neighborhood Major League Baseball’s Dodgers and Mets (combined payroll $788.5 million) are spending to try to win this year’s World Series.
For trends, Cooper individually hasn’t lost a statewide election. Democrats winning Senate seats in the state, however, is a different challenge.
The late Kay Hagan in 2008 was the last Democrat to win a Senate seat in the state. The last Democrats to win midterms were John Edwards in 1998 and Terry Sanford in 1986. Republicans are 5-0 in Senate elections since Hagan’s triumph.
Republicans in all statewide races for this decade – 2020, 2022 and 2024 – are 32-10 against Democrats, a party with significantly declining voter registrations for more than 20 consecutive years.
