Election 2026: Registration swing favors independence, hurts Democrats

(The Center Square) – Even with an overall decrease of more than 32,000 voter registrations since Election Day 2024, the unaffiliated bloc has risen 154,001 in North Carolina, according to the State Board of Elections.

Comparatively to the dominant party – Democrats – in registrations forever, it’s more than a quarter million voters swinging.

Saturday’s update by the state board included 7,807,786 total registrations, up 5,099 in the past seven days updates via county boards. The independent registrations went up 4,136 to 3,113,007, Democrats went up 578 to 2,316,541, and Republicans went up 379 to 2,327,131.

At Election Day two years ago, the total was 32,035 less. Republicans had 19,941 less than today, and Democrats 136,206 less.

Since the first weekend in April, registrations have similarly trended. There are 72,545 registrations net that have been added, 68,307 of which are unaffiliated. The Republican Party has added 2,214 and the Democrats 1,615.

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Voter roll maintenance, standard and as required by law, and a trend away from parties since Election Day 2024 has continued to swell the independents and weaken the major parties with regard to registrations.

For the 2026 midterms on Nov. 3, absentee ballots go into the mail Sept. 4 – or six weeks from this coming Friday. North Carolinians will choose a U.S. senator, all 14 members of the U.S. House, and all 170 members of the General Assembly.

For context in the change of landscape, at what is generally considered a landmark Election Day in 2008, the state’s total registrations were 6,264,733. Those unaffiliated numbered just under 1.4 million (22.2%) while Democrats’ 2,866,669 had 45.8% share and Republicans’ 2,002,416 was a 32% share. Barack Obama became the first Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to carry the state, by a mere 14,177 votes of more than 4.3 million cast, on the way to winning the White House.

The state’s lone U.S. Senate seat was won by Democrat Kay Hagan, and the 13 U.S. House seats were divvied up eight Democrats and five Republicans.

The Council of State went 8-2 to Democrats. Incumbent Republicans’ Steve Troxler and Cherie Berry remained commissioners of agriculture and labor, respectively. And the General Assembly was 30-20 Democrats in the Senate and 68-52 Democrats in the House of Representatives.

Today, Republicans have won the state in the presidential race 13 of the last 15 contests (1968-present), five consecutive U.S. Senate races (2010-present), and two years ago captured 10 of 14 seats for the U.S. House.

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The Council of State is a 5-5 split. On Election Day 2024, the General Assembly majorities were 30-20 Republicans in the Senate and 71-49 Republicans in the House of Representatives.

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