(The Center Square) – Just hours after the polls closed, North Carolina was called for former President Donald Trump and all but one of the statewide races had already been declared.
While Trump posted a solid win against Harris, Republicans’ 6-4 edge on the Council of State was reduced to a 5-5 split and a 72-48 majority in the House of Representatives – 72 being three-fifths, minimum for overturning gubernatorial veto – was trimmed to 71-49.
The Grand Old Party gained a seat in the Senate, to 31-19 advantage. There, three-fifths is 30.
According to experts, that continues the trend of North Carolina voters being comfortable with splitting their vote across parties.
Dr. Andy Jackson, director at Civitas Center for Public Integrity at the John Locke Foundation, told The Center Square that the election results out of North Carolina held few surprises.
“North Carolina voters have proven again that we are really good about splitting our ticket,” Jackson said. “We’ve done this for decades now.”
While North Carolina voters do lean Republican, Jackson pointed out that they also care about having strong candidates on the ballot.
“If you are a solid candidate, you have a chance to win,” he explained. “I characterize North Carolina as a 52/48 state. We are not a 50/50 state. That means that, if you have a good Democratic candidate who can raise money and can connect the voters, that candidate can still win here.”
Democrat gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein, a two-term attorney general, is an example.
Stein both out-fundraised and regularly out-polled Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson going into Election Day.
While Trump received 50.96% of support from voters in the state, Robinson received only 40.18%. There was a 650,000 voter gap between the two Republicans.
“We can still say candidates matter,” Dr. Steven Greene of N.C. State University told The Center Square. “In most other statewide races – especially those where both candidates were essentially unknown – there was very little variance from Trump or Harris numbers.”
He called Robinson a “truly awful candidate” for the gubernatorial race.
Jackson agreed about the negative effects of Robinson’s campaign.
“Most people would agree Robinson’s presence on the ticket was certainly not good for Republicans,” he said.
Yet, Greene said the impact of Robinson’s campaign had little effect on the other Republican candidates in the state.
“Democrats placed a bet that Robinson might drag down other candidates … but I think it is fairly safe to say the impact was limited to the governor’s race,” Greene said.
Robinson, on Sept. 19, fell victim to reporting by CNN involving a porn site chat room more than a decade ago long before he rose to viral fame on the strength of speaking to the Greensboro City Council during time for public comments.
Three seats flipped parties on the Council of State. Robinson’s seat was won by state Sen. Rachel Hunt, D-Mecklenburg, over Hal Weatherman; Democrat Mo Green won the education superintendent post over Michele Morrow, who had unseated Catherine Truitt in the Republican primary; and Republican Dave Boliek unseated Democratic appointee Jessica Holmes as state auditor.
“I think it was a very typical North Carolina election. It was a muddled affair,” Jackson said. “Both parties have highlights they can point to.”
Jackson predicts that Republicans will ultimately feel better than Democrats about how they performed in North Carolina, especially after winning all three statewide Court of Appeals seats, and likely another seat on the state’s Supreme Court.
“That’s a hedge against its future Democratic victory,” he said of the Supreme Court race. “I think we are into the next decade of pretty much guaranteed Republican control, unless there are resignations.”
Jackson said passing the constitutional amendment to prevent noncitizens from voting was also a win for Republicans in the state. It was the last item on the state’s longest ballot of any election every four years, and more than 5.3 million colored in a circle including 77.6% “for” the measure.
“That was an issue that, every time it gets up to voters, it resonates with voters,” he said. “I’m really grateful that the General Assembly gave the voters a chance to add that to our constitution.”
Greene said that this election shows that North Carolina will continue to be considered one of the swing states.
“It does appear North Carolina has moved towards being a true tipping point state,” he said. “The 2026 Senate race is likely to be extremely competitive and I expect 2028 will again show us to be one of the top target swing states.”
