(The Center Square) – Jones Street may be home to North Carolina’s General Assembly, but it’s courtrooms in the Old North State where a fair amount of the crucial business is now decided.
Since Republicans for the first time in 140 years seized majorities in both chambers 15 years ago, Democrats have fought change of agenda with fervor and litigation. It’s not that Republicans didn’t do so before, but even decisive choices on amendments – such as requiring a photo identification when voting – can take as much as six years to clear courtroom hurdles.
Tuesday’s Election Day didn’t include statewide offices or measures, but the municipal results did show a clear advantage for Democrats. Suburbs joined the largest cities and chose the hue of blue, and more on a national scale, the party was triumphant in highly watched races in New York City, Virginia, New Jersey and for Proposition 50 in California.
“I’m not convinced these results tell us much about what to expect in 2026,” Dr. Jason Husser, director of the Elon Poll and professor of political science and public policy at Elon University, told The Center Square.
Veteran political observers of the state are generally in consensus with him, with Mitch Kokai of the John Locke Foundation offering that North Carolina is simply a different animal than where eyes were cast earlier this week.
Still, pivotal in the Tarheel State for the 2026 midterms is one state Supreme Court race and Seats 1, 2 and 3 on the Court of Appeals. The incumbent on the high court is Anita Earls, a Democrat. At the appellate level, the seats are held, respectively, by Justices John Arrowood, Toby Hampson and Allegra Katherine Collins – all Democrats.
Partisan splits are 5-2 Republicans at the Supreme Court and 11-4 Republicans at the Court of Appeals. The Court of Appeals is tasked with review of cases for errors of law or legal procedure, not questions of fact. The Supreme Court hears appeals from lower courts and makes decisions on questions of law.
“The statewide judicial races are likely to follow the general mood of the voters in 2026,” Kokai, Locke’s senior political analyst, told The Center Square. “The last three election cycles have been excellent for Republicans, but the seats up for grabs next year are the ones that Democrats captured in 2018. Republicans are on offense and Democrats on defense in these races. But it would be hard for the GOP to win these seats if Democrats are having a stronger-than-normal year.”
It was just eight years ago when Democrat Michael Morgan’s win turned the Supreme Court majority to Democrats 4-3 just as four-term Attorney General Roy Cooper stepped into the governor’s office for the first of two terms. The courtroom was called upon several times when the Democrat disagreed with a General Assembly sporting GOP majority in each chamber.
Democrats held a 6-1 edge going into the 2020 election. In that one Democrats lost all three state Supreme Court races – Justice Paul Newby won one to elevate to chief justice, and Tamara Barringer and Phil Berger Jr. joining the court. Democrats’ advantage was still 4-3.
In 2022, Republicans won both races to gain a 5-2 majority. Allison Riggs’ win in 2024 kept it there, though the Democrat with hardly any bench experience appointed by Cooper had to survive a drawn-out litigation that meandered through the State Board of Elections decisions and court rulings at Wake County Superior Court, the state’s Court of Appeals and Supreme Court, and the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.
“The 2025 North Carolina municipal elections revealed a clear anti-incumbent streak among voters, with several well-established local officials losing races across the Triad and Triangle,” Husser said. “Still, I’m not convinced these results tell us much about what to expect in 2026.
“Most municipal contests are nonpartisan, unlike judicial or legislative races, and the state’s election calendar leaves out many rural and unincorporated areas. As recent presidential elections have shown, voters outside city limits can be decisive, and their voices were not fully reflected in this year’s local results.”
