(The Center Square) – Gaining five times more in the last week, Republicans have moved to the cusp of eclipsing Democrats in voter registrations in North Carolina for the first time.
Consolation prize as it may be, the change is historic and coincides with another unprecedented benchmark in 15 years of Republican majorities in the General Assembly. Context for the matter, however, is that voters choosing to register are consistently – about 7 in 10 – in 2025 opting to be unaffiliated.
The historic change of the unaffiliated bloc surging past Democrats is approaching a four-year annivesary (March 2022). September was the eight-year anniversary of independents numbering more than Republicans.
Political observers throughout the 2024 election cycle and continuing since have surmised in conversation with TCS that those representing independence have within them only about 10% to 15% in such true fashion. The remainder lean toward the left or right of the political aisle.
Baseball terminology would equate to the area from the left-center field power alley to the right-center field power alley. In North Carolina’s 236-year history, each of the major parties has been around more than 150 years, the Grand Old Party (1867) more than a half century behind its rival (1828).
Through Saturday’s weekly update of the State Board of Elections database, the unaffiliated bloc (gained 7,285 last week, or 72.1% of the net change) is nearing 3 million with 2,957,513 – a 38.8% share.
Democrats remain second, gaining 344 last week (0.05% of the net change) for a third consecutive week of modest gains. They total 2,310,363, or 30.3%. Republicans (gained 1,632 last week, or 22.4% of the net change) are at 2,308,479, or 30.3%.
The difference of the major parties without rounding is a Democrats’ lead of 0.0247014.
Democrats are 1,884 registrations ahead of Republicans. The unaffiliated bloc is 649,034 ahead of Republicans and 647,150 ahead of Democrats.
Total voter registrations eclipsed 7.8 million on Election Day 2024; routine maintenance throughout the year is a key contributing factor to the volume changes. This fall was an off-year election cycle, when 91 of 100 counties had municipal races.
A mere 16 years ago Democrats were in eight of 10 seats for the Council of State and commanded 30-20 and 68-52 majorities in the General Assembly. Then came the historic 2010 midterms, and both chambers being won by Republicans for the first time since Reconstruction 140 years earlier.
Today those figures are 5-5 in the executive offices, and Republicans hold advantages of 30-20 in the Senate and 71-49 in the House of Representatives.
For context on how Democrats once had a lock, from the every two years elections of 1930 to 1982 the party was below 43 of the 50 state Senate seats just twice (won 38 in 1969, won 35 in 1973) and didn’t have fewer than 30 until only getting 26 in the 1994 cycle. From 1930 to 1982 in the House, Democrats had fewer than 102 of the 120 just six times with 85 won in 1974 the worst.
Three decades ago at Election Day 1992, North Carolinians elected Democrats to all 10 Council of State positions and majorities of 39-11 in the state Senate and 78-42 in the House.
