(The Center Square) – Republican Michael Whatley has the greatest polling deficit yet to Democrat Roy Cooper, trailing the former two-term governor by 8.7% in a sample released Thursday.
The 2026 midterms race to succeed Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is forecast to set Senate campaign spending records in the range of $750 million to $1 billion. Cooper led the former Republican National Committee chairman in the Carolina Journal sampling 46.1%-41.9% last month and 47.3%-39.1% the month prior.
Thursday, he trailed 47.3%-38.6%. In a separate question, Republican Don Brown was even farther back of Cooper 48.1%-38%. This was the first time in the election cycle Brown was included in the outlet’s polling sample.
Harper Polling helped conduct the sampling among 600 likely voters on Sunday and Monday. The margin of error is +/- 4% and the confidence level is 95%.
“If Whatley or Brown want to have a chance in this race, they will need to get in front of voters and raise their own public profile,” said Donald Bryson, CEO of the John Locke Foundation that publishes the Carolina Journal.
Senate races in the state have gone to Republicans five consecutive times the last 15 years, and seven of eight this century. Cooper is trying to be the first from his party to go the chamber since Kay Hagan won 17 years ago.
In addition to his gubernatorial run, Cooper is a former four-term attorney general. Whatley is best known for his role leading the Republican National Committee at the request of two-term Republican President Donald Trump, and prior to that leading the North Carolina Republican Party.
On Aug. 1, respondents to Emerson polling gave Cooper a 47%-41% lead. In polling Sept. 2-8 by Carolina Forward, respondents gave Cooper a 48%-41% lead.
Victory Insights, billing itself as the “gold standard of political polling,” on July 31 released a sampling giving Cooper a slight lead of 43.4%-40.2% and with leaners 44.4%-43.5%.
