(The Center Square) – Attorney General Josh Stein leads Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson decisively in the governor’s race among likely North Carolina voters who are Black, urban, youngest and oldest, and affiliated as independents, according to new polling released Monday.
ActiVote, which bills itself are a user of data and facts rather than partisanship, said overall the Democratic candidate leads 54.1%-45.9%. The poll was conducted July 26 through Monday, surveying 400 likely voters and yielding a +/- 4.9% margin of error.
Stein seeks to be the state’s first governor of Jewish faith. Robinson is trying to become the first Black elected to the office. In addition to the 61-day window opening for absentee-by-mail voting in 10 days on Sept. 6, early in-person voting is 51 days away and Election Day is 70 away.
Stein led 87%-13% among Blacks and Robinson led 58%-42% among whites. In regions, Stein led 88%-12% for urban and 55%-45% suburban, with Robinson ahead 52%-48% rural.
By age, Stein led 61%-39% for ages 18-29 and ages 65-plus; ages 30-49 was 50%-50%; and Robinson led ages 50-64 by 54%-46%.
Each was backed by respective parties – Stein led Democrats 93%-7% and Robinson led Republicans 90%-10%. For independents, Stein led 58%-42%.
North Carolina’s more than 7.6 million registered voters as of Saturday are 37.6% unaffiliated, 31.6% Democrats, and 29.9% Republicans — a stark change from 20 years ago, when it was 47.6% Democrats, 34.4% Republicans, and 17.7% unaffiliated.
Robinson scored well with men (55%-45%) and high income (53%-47%). Stein did so with women (62%-38%), low income (59%-41%) and middle income (56%-44%).
Stein led a more recent polling sample of 1,200 adults conducted during the first three days of the Democratic National Convention 48%-34%. High Point University/Survey USA provided that analysis.
Gov. Roy Cooper is finishing his second consecutive term, the limit by state law, capping 13 consecutive winning elections dating to November 1984. Since Daniel Lindsay Scott Russell’s 1897-1901 tenure, the governor’s office has had a Democrat every year sans Oliver Max Gardner (1929-33) of the Baptist Party, and Republicans James Holshouser (1973-77), Jim Martin (1985-93) and Pat McCrory (2013-16).
