(The Center Square) – North Carolina’s population has grown by 756,000 people over the last five years, a 7.2% percent increase, according to newly released U.S. Census Bureau numbers.
The state grew from 10.4 million on April 1, 2020, to an estimated 11,197,968 on July 1,2025, according to the new estimates. That’s a pace to reach more than 11.9 million at the 2030 census.
California, Texas, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania and Illinois are the states today with estimated populations of 12 million or more. Ohio and Georgia are also ahead of North Carolina.
State Demographer Michael Cline told TCS North Carolina could surpass Georgia and Ohio.
North Carolina has benefited from many factors including the fact that it is in the South with a milder climate which more people prefer to harsh northern winters Cline said.
The state’s success in the technology field has also helped, he said.
“If you look over the past several decades, growth is occurring around major urban centers with high tech and other types of job growth, but also areas with natural amenities which North Carolina has plenty of,” he said.
Long-term investments in education, including the University of North Carolina System and the Research Triangle Park, are assets that attract new companies and people to the state, Cline added.
“We continue to benefit from those seeds that were planted in the 1950s and ’60s,” he said.
It is impressive that North Carolina gained population at a time when birth rates are dropping nationally, Kline said.
Most of North Carolina’s growth has been from net migration, meaning more people moving in than out of the state, he said.
The U.S. is projected by around 2030 to start experiencing a “natural decrease” in population – more deaths than births, Cline said. At that point, any population growth would be through immigration to the U.S., he said.
North Carolina will experience a similar trend, Cline said.
“All of our growth will require more people moving here than leaving,” he said.
The new census estimates look very promising for North Carolina for attracting new residents from other states, Cline said.
“I was surprised that for the last year – 2024 to 2025, we were actually No. 1,” nationally, he said. “It kind of shocked me to see that. That’s the first time I’ve seen that.”
North Carolina had 84,000 people moving in from other states while the second highest state, Texas, had 67,000, Cline said.
“We are kind of in a sweet spot where we have a lot of people finding us including younger people looking for either education, military or work,” Cline said. “Baby boomers are also retiring and wanting to move. The mid-South area seems to be a sweet spot for that.”
