(The Center Square) – In just seven years, North Carolina could reach a demographic milestone: more deaths than births, according to new projections by the state’s demographer Michael Cline.
“Unless fertility or life expectancy rise significantly, future population growth will depend entirely on domestic and international migration,” Cline wrote. “ As the gap between births and deaths widens, population growth will slow unless the state continues to attract more people than it loses – including a growing share from international migration.”
Nearly a third of the state’s population growth has come from international migration since 2020, Cline said.
International immigration is good for birth rates and could delay the projected tipping point in 2033 when North Carolina begins to experience a “natural decrease” in population and depends only on migration for growth.
“Because immigrants tend to arrive as young adults and often come from countries with higher fertility rates, the exact timing of this shift depends heavily on future immigration levels,” Cline said.
Other states, however, have greater international migration than North Carolina.
International migration has accounted for 59% of the population growth in Florida and 40% in Texas since 2020, according to Cline’s report.
North Carolina ranks ninth in the nation for international migration.
By some estimates, the U.S. will start seeing deaths exceed births as early as 2030, which will be the first year of “natural decrease” in population. Other estimates predict the tipping point could occur as late as 2042.
Meanwhile, North Carolina remains the national leader in attracting people from other U.S. states.
Between July 2024 and July 2025, 84,000 people from other states moved to North Carolina.
During the COVID-19 era, North Carolina attracted even more residents from other states, 104,000 between July 2020 and July 2021, Cline reported.
“For North Carolina, as in much of the country, net migration has become the primary source of population growth,” Cline wrote. “Declining fertility and an aging population have reduced natural increase. Most North Carolina counties now experience natural decrease. Since 2020, natural increase has accounted for only 6% of North Carolina’s total population growth.”
