(The Center Square) – Plausible reductions in agricultural exports because of retaliatory trade policies stemming from aggressive U.S. tariffs could cost North Carolina farmers $695 million, a new report says.
Dr. Jeffrey Dorfman of N.C. State University, for the conservative-leaning John Locke Foundation, on Monday released his study, “How Tariffs Threaten North Carolina Agriculture: NC Farmers at Risk.” The author used historical pattern to reason potential economic consequences of large disruptions in international trade.
“North Carolina farmers have only a limited set of options for minimizing the damage,” Dorfman writes. “They can search for new markets, constantly protecting themselves against becoming too reliant on any one or a few trading partners. They can develop larger domestic markets for their commodities, such as through generic product advertising and funding new product development. They can also try to create value-added products derived from their bulk commodities, capturing a larger share of the food dollar and keeping more of the post-harvest income and jobs from further processing within North Carolina.
“Still, while all these are worth pursuing, they are not likely to be sufficient – especially in the short run – to mitigate the risks North Carolina farmers currently face from a potentially damaging tariff regime.”
Second-term Republican President Donald Trump, since taking office Jan. 20, 2025, has made dozens of changes to trade policy through tariffs. Some have been implemented, others implemented then changed, and in some cases he’s merely threatened.
“The easiest way to avoid the risks from countries retaliating against the U.S. for placing restrictions on international trade is not to put restrictions on international trade in the first place,” Dorfman writes.
The reasons for each have been varied. Border security and drug interdiction, for example, are involved with Mexico, Canada and China. Large trade deficits are involved with reciprocal tariffs. The president has also sought to improve domestic manufacturing and invited use of tariffs into conversations involving international conflict.
“When agriculture is targeted in international trade disputes, North Carolina is especially vulnerable,” said Donald Bryson, president and CEO of the John Locke Foundation. “This report shows that the costs are not abstract – they mean lost farm income, lost jobs, and real harm to rural communities.”
North Carolina’s agriculture and agri-business economic impact is an estimated $111.1 billion annually.
About 42,500 farms are operated on 8.1 million acres from Murphy to Manteo. The state is eighth in the nation in value of agricultural products sold, 14th in exports.
North Carolina production is No. 1 nationally each in sweetpotatoes, all tobacco, flue-cured tobacco, and poultry and eggs. The state is No. 2 in Christmas tree sales, production of turkeys, and food-size trout sold. It is No. 3 in cucumbers and hogs, No. 4 in peanuts and broilers (chicken), and No. 5 in cotton.
Estimates on economic impact leaders for North Carolina are led by agriculture and manufacturing (each $100 billion to $110 billion); real estate and leasing (more than $100 billion); and finance and insurance, and life sciences (each more than $80 billion).
The nonprofit John Locke Foundation bills its vision as “a North Carolina in which liberty and limited, constitutional government are the cornerstones of society so that individuals, families, and institutions can freely shape their own destinies.”
