(The Center Square) – For nearly 90 years, the party of the nation’s president has lost seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in 20 of 22 midterm elections.
Democrats in North Carolina certainly are leaving the 2025 off-year cycle ending last Tuesday with momentum. They may not be forecast to help that streak, but they are trending to bursting another – North Carolina Republicans in the U.S. Senate.
“The pulse for the 2026 midterms is definitely leaning in the Democratic direction,” Dr. Chris Cooper told The Center Square. He’s director of the Public Policy Institute at Western Carolina University. “In general, we expect the party of the president to lose seats in midterm elections and the Democrats do appear mobilized. And that’s likely good news for Roy Cooper and statewide judicial candidates in 2026.”
Senate races in the state have gone to Republicans five consecutive times the last 15 years, and seven of eight this century. In what most believe will set national records for spending in Senate races, Democrat Roy Cooper is polling ahead of Republican Michael Whatley trying to be the first from his party to go the chamber since Kay Hagan won 17 years ago.
“I see two key factors for down-ballot races: what drives voter turnout and what shapes people’s perception of the country’s direction,” Dr. Jason Husser, director of the Elon Poll and professor of political science and public policy at Elon University, told The Center Square. “On turnout, the U.S. Senate race will likely be the main driver. Right now, Democrats have a favorable starting point since the latest Elon University Poll shows Roy Cooper with much stronger numbers than Michael Whatley. However, Republican messaging has not yet begun in earnest. Once the campaign spending increases, those numbers are likely to tighten.”
Husser declines speculation on how the country is doing in setting up the 2026 midterms cycle. Too many topics are fluid, from the government shutdown to interest rates, foreign affairs and Supreme Court rulings – in no particular order.
Dr. David McLennan, director of the Meredith Poll and professor of political science at Meredith College in Raleigh, told The Center Square on Wednesday, “Where Democrats may feel most confident after yesterday’s results are in the U.S. Senate race. Roy Cooper was considered to be a slight favorite, but the results of North Carolina and elections from other states might indicate that Democrats, like Cooper, may be more supported.”
Cooper is the former two-term governor, and former four-term attorney general. Whatley is best known for his role leading the Republican National Committee at the request of two-term Republican President Donald Trump, and prior to that leading the North Carolina Republican Party.
On Aug. 1, respondents to Emerson polling gave Cooper a 47%-41% lead.
In the Aug. 14 release of sampling by the Carolina Journal, Cooper led Whatley 47.3%-39.1%. In September’s poll one month later from the same outlet, Cooper led 46.1%-41.9%.
In polling Sept. 2-8 by Carolina Forward, respondents gave Cooper a 48%-41% lead.
Victory Insights, billing itself as the “gold standard of political polling,” on July 31 released a sampling giving Cooper a slight lead of 43.4%-40.2% and with leaners 44.4%-43.5%.
