(The Center Square) – North Carolina’s named storm forecasts for hurricane season from N.C. State University and Colorado State University fall within the large probability of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The Atlantic basin season began Sunday and runs through Nov. 30. N.C. State projects 12-15 named storms, Colorado State 17 and NOAA 13-19. Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at N.C. State, said the averages are 11 from 1951-2023 and 15 from 1994-2024.
He said six to eight could become hurricanes – wind speeds reaching at least 74 mph – and two to three could be major (winds of 111 mph or higher, hitting Category 3).
Colorado State’s forecast includes nine hurricanes, four of them to major. NOAA predicts six to 10 hurricanes with three to five major.
The Atlantic tropical cyclone names this season are Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van and Wendy.
Hurricane Helene, arguably the worst natural disaster in state history, killed 107 and did an estimated $60 billion in damage. The 36th week of recovery commenced over the weekend.
Hurricanes Matthew (2016) and Florence (2018) were major storms that struck the southeastern part of the state in a period where four storms in 47 months came ashore. Dorian (2019) and Isaias (2020) were of lesser damaging strength hitting the same area.
North Carolina has been struck just once by a Category 4. Hazel roared in near Calabash on Oct. 15, 1954.
