(The Center Square) – New polling of 11 days ending Friday contrasts with weekly results of last Monday through Thursday on which presidential candidate will win the battleground state of North Carolina.
Given sample sizes of no more than about 700 or less for each and respective margins of error, the state remains a toss-up by polling. Patterned history of the last 60 years, however, favors the Grand Old Party.
North Carolina has 16 electoral college votes and is considered one of seven key battleground states representing 93 electoral college votes. The others are Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (six).
Focaldata’s analysis of registered voters goes for Democrat Kamala Harris by 3% and its likely voters polled puts the race even with Republican Donald Trump. Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest update from likely voters goes with the former president by 3%.
A six-day poll ending last Wednesday by The New York Times and Siena College scored the vice president ahead among registered and likely voters by 3% and 2%, respectively.
Focaldata bills itself “a consumer analytics and public opinion polling startup.” Its margin of error is +/- 3.7%. For registered voters, Harris led with 47%, Trump was at 44%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 6%, Jill Stein 1% and Chase Oliver less than 1%. Of 702 likely voters, it was Harris 47%, Trump 46%, Kennedy 5%, Stein 1% and Oliver less than 1%.
Redfield & Wilton, sponsored by The Telegraph, has polled weekly in the battleground states and monitors the gubernatorial race. Its margin of error is not listed. Of 601 likely voters, Trump collected 47%, Harris 44%, Kennedy 2%, Oliver 1% and Stein less than 1%. Of 601 likely voters in the governor’s race, Democrat Josh Stein led Republican Mark Robinson 45%-39%, with Libertarian Mike Ross at 2% and the Green Party’s Wayne Turner less than 1%.
In the Times/Siena sampling, a margin of error is +/- 4.3%. For 655 registered voters, Harris led Trump 45%-42%, with Kennedy at 5%, Stein 2%, Oliver 1%, and Cornel West less than 1%. For 655 likely voters, it was Harris 46%, Trump 44%, Kennedy 4%, Stein 1%, and West and Oliver each less than 1%.
For the governor’s race, the Times/Siena poll only used the two major parties. Stein led Robinson 48%-38% for 655 registered voters, and 49%-39% for 655 likely voters.
Democratic presidential candidates since Lyndon B. Johnson’s 1964 triumph have only won the state twice in the last 14 cycles – Jimmy Carter in 1976, and Barack Obama in 2008. Each failed to win the state four years later.
Gov. Roy Cooper is finishing his second consecutive term, the limit by state law, capping 13 consecutive winning elections dating to November 1984. Since Daniel Lindsay Scott Russell’s 1897-1901 tenure, the governor’s office has had a Democrat every year sans Oliver Max Gardner (1929-33) of the Baptist Party, and Republicans James Holshouser (1973-77), Jim Martin (1985-93) and Pat McCrory (2013-16).
