(The Center Square) – A report released by congressional Democrats showing the overall average costs of goods in the state and America increased from 2024 to 2025 lacks context, according to Zachary Milne, a senior economist at the Common Sense Institute Arizona.
Last week, the Joint Economic Committee-Minority released a report showing the overall average cost of goods increased nationwide. In Arizona, the report said the average overall costs increased by $1,569, including $188 more for housing and $251 more for transportation.
The report by the Democrats on the committee, which consists of members of the House and Senate, found the national average was $1,625.
After the report was released, Arizona congressional Democrats – U.S. Sens. Ruben Gallego and Mark Kelly, as well as U.S. Reps. Greg Stanton of Tempe, Yassamin Ansari of Phoenix and Adelita Grijalva of Goodyear – all issued statements decrying the estimated price increase.
Kelly said the president “promised to lower costs for working families. Instead, he called the very real affordability crisis a ‘hoax’ while his policies have driven prices up and left Arizonans paying over $1,500 more in just one year.”
Gallego said in Trump’s America, “people pay more and get less.”
Stanton said people are struggling to get by because of Trump’s tariffs.
“I’m fighting in Congress and the courts to end the chaos because Arizonans deserve better,” Stanton added.
Ansari noted Trump promised Americans lower prices, but instead they went up, and “Arizonans are suffering – unable to afford groceries and medication, let alone save for a home.”
Grijalva blamed Trump’s tariffs and economic policies for driving up the “price of housing, transportation, food, and health care,” which leaves “working people and families stretched thinner every day.”
According to Milne, the report’s missing context is that it is normal to expect prices to increase by 2% annually.
The report issued by Democrats is citing “raw year-over-year changes” between 2024 and 2025, he told The Center Square.
“Eighty-five percent of the difference between 2024 and 2025 is just what we’d call ‘normal inflation’ or normal year-over-year price increases,” Milne said.
Using his own methodology, the economist estimated the nationwide average costs are $2,100 higher in 2025 than in 2024.
Looking at his projection of $2,100, $1,800 of that is “normal year-over-year price inflation,” Milne said, adding that the remaining $300 was due to high inflation.
“ I don’t think it is capturing necessarily what some people may think it’s capturing. In other words, that is just the raw difference in spending a household would have to spend in 2025 to consume what they consumed in 2024,” he noted.
Based on his determination that 85% of overall costs are due to normal price inflation, Milne applied this to $1,569 and estimated that overall costs would be $1,334 higher from 2024 to 2025.
The $235 remaining from the $1,569 estimate reflects the impact of high inflation from 2024 to 2025.
The perception that prices are unaffordable stems from the large price increases in recent years, Milne told The Center Square.
Examining fixed consumption levels in the U.S. from 2019 to 2020, Milne reported that consumers spent an additional $3,254 in 2021.
Furthermore, a year later, American consumers would need to spend an extra $10,879, he said.
In 2023, Milne said, consumers spent an additional $14,682 more than they “spent in 2020 to consume the same number of goods.”
Inflation rates from 2021 to 2023 were “way above normal,” the senior economist explained.
These price estimates from 2021 to 2023 did not account for a 2% year-over-year inflation rate, but looked at raw year-over-year data, he added
Bringing down inflation to the normal 2% doesn’t mean prices are going to come back to normal.
America’s current inflation rate is 2.7%, which Milne said is “more back to normal,” while “affordability and price levels” are not. The economist noted the Federal Reserve likes to keep inflation around 2%.
The Center Square reached out to Kelly and Gallego, but they did not respond before press time.
