(The Center Square) – A new poll from Noble Predictive Insights shows Karrin Taylor Robson beating U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs in the Arizona Republican gubernatorial primary race.
The poll indicated Taylor Robson has a 7-point lead over Biggs, R-Chandler, with 24% to 17%. However, despite this lead, 37% of Arizonans who participated in this survey said they are unsure.
Between the two candidates, the poll found Arizona registered voters thought Taylor Robson was a more loyal supporter of President Donald Trump: 46% to 37%.
For this question, NPI surveyed 406 registered Republican voters. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.76 percentage points.
In a press release after the poll was released, Taylor Robson said she was honored to have the “trust and support of Arizonans.”
“With President Trump’s endorsement and a growing coalition of law enforcement, parents and small business owners behind us, we’re building the kind of grassroots movement that has the momentum to win next year,” she said.
Trump endorsed both Republicans – Biggs in April and Taylor Robson in December.
David Byler, chief of Research at NPI, said the race between Biggs and Taylor Robson is “still extremely close.” Byler noted “voters don’t have well-formed opinions” on either candidate.
This poll was conducted between May 12 and May 16 and released last week.
As NPI finished its surveying, Charlie Kirk, the founder of Turning Point USA, endorsed Biggs in the race.
NPI said this “may shift the race dramatically.” The polling company explained that Kirk’s endorsement gives Biggs an opportunity to gather conservative grassroots support and “potentially leapfrog Taylor Robson as the frontrunner.”
And Kirk’s endorsement allows Biggs to appeal to voting blocs beyond the traditional Republican base, NPI said.
“The moment Kirk stepped out and backed Biggs, the math changed,” Byler said.
“Biggs now has the opportunity to inherit a young, digital-savvy base that Kirk built, which could be decisive,” he said.
When it comes to matchups against Gov. Katie Hobbs, these races are close. Hypothetical matchups between the Democratic governor and the two Republican candidates are within this question’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. This means the races are virtually tied.
NPI surveyed 1,026 registered voters in Arizona for this question.
Hobbs has a “foundation, but not a fortress,” Mike Noble, the NPI founder and CEO, said.
“With Republicans energized and the Trump factor still strong, this is shaping up to be a close and unpredictable race this early on,” he explained.
Taylor Robson ran for Arizona governor in 2022, but lost the Republican primary to Kari Lake. Hobbs defeated Lake in the general election.
