(The Center Square) – There are multiple key races to watch in Texas in the last few hours of Election Day, with border districts a central focus.
According to multiple polls, former President Donald Trump and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, are expected to win, but not by much. Polls show Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by an estimated 7 points and Cruz leading U.S. Rep. Colin Allred by roughly 4 points among Texas voters.
At a Cruz campaign event on Monday night, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who’s been Trump’s Texas campaign chair for three elections, said Trump and Cruz would not only win but “set a record victory” Tuesday night.
Allred’s campaign spent $75 million in an attempt to defeat Cruz, including out-of-state funding and from the U.S. Senatorial Campaign Committee, prompting a lawsuit. “They could have spread that money around the other states,” Patrick said, saying not doing so was “stupid.” He said no one who votes for Trump is going to cross over and vote for Allred. “That person doesn’t exist in the state of Texas.”
Political analysts have surmised that the more people who vote for Trump will also vote for Cruz, whose race is listed second on the ballot. Because the state legislature changed the voting structure, voters can no longer vote by clicking a button to vote all Republican or all Democrat. Each individual race must be voted on or skipped. In some counties, ballots were 73 pages long, or longer.
Those urging voters to oust incumbent judges to reduce crime are encouraged to go through the entire ballot. In Dallas, with more than a dozen ballot propositions, nearly all that will increase taxes, voters have been urged to do the same.
According to the Secretary of State’s Office, slightly more than 9 million Texans cast ballots during early voting, nearly half of Texas registered voters. “Based on their primary voting history, Republicans have an 866,000-vote advantage over Democrats going into Election Day,” Austin-based Ryan Data & Research said. The top five counties accounted for 40% of all early votes.
Republicans have an early voting lead of more than 1 million, more than previous elections, according to an analysis by Dr. Ross Hunt with Austin-based Murphy Nasica & Associates.
State legislative and congressional races are also up for grabs in south Texas, where Republicans have made inroads in historically Democratic strongholds. Trump made historic gains in south Texas in the last two elections and is expected to do so again this election.
Three key races to watch are in border districts where border security is a top concern among primarily Hispanic voters.
Two years ago, U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz was the first Republican elected in Texas’ 15th Congressional District in state history. She defeated far left Democrat Michelle Vallejo, who is challenging her again this election.
De La Cruz played a key role in shifting border districts red but it wasn’t enough for Republicans to win in two other key congressional border races.
In the 34th Congressional District, former U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores, a Republican and Mexican-American who made history two years ago by winning a special election, lost nine months later to incumbent Democrat U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez after redistricting. They are facing off again this election.
In the 28th Congressional District, incumbent U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Laredo, who survived a heated primary and runoff election, and was targeted by the Biden-Harris Department of Justice, is being challenged by Republican Jay Furman.
Cuellar and Gonzalez appear to be the most bipartisan of the Texas Democratic congressional delegation, often voting with Republicans on border security and pro-oil and natural gas bills, unlike Allred, The Center Square reported.
According to polls, the majority of Texas Hispanics support building a border wall and sending troops to the border, The Center Square reported.
Gov. Greg Abbott has campaigned for several state lawmakers in border districts where residents, including long-time Democrats, blame the Biden-Harris administration for the border crisis.
One key race is a Texas Senate District 27 rematch. Republican Adam Hinojosa, endorsed by Abbott, Patrick, and Trump, is challenging incumbent Democrat Sen. Morgan LaMantia, D-South Padre Island, who defeated him in 2022 by less than 700 votes. LaMantia’s family, who owns L&F Distributors, one of the largest beer distributors in Texas, loaned her campaign more than $10 million since 2022, according to campaign finance records.
Multiple elected officials who left the Democratic Party are running for reelection as Republicans in South Texas, The Center Square has reported.
Statewide, multiple state House Republican candidates are expected to win their elections on Tuesday after winning their March primary races and May runoff elections, possibly handing Abbott a win for school choice when the legislature convenes next year. Roughly 21 Texas House seats were targeted this year to elect pro-school choice candidates. The majority of incumbents who opposed school choice resigned or lost their primaries, with a few exceptions.
