Stanley Cup Final 2021: Lightning vs. Canadiens odds, NHL picks, Game 4 predictions from proven hockey expert

The Tampa Bay Lightning have the chance to hoist the Stanley Cup on Monday evening. The Lightning lead the Montreal Canadiens by a 3-0 series margin as the teams face off on Monday in Game 4 of the 2021 Stanley Cup Final in Montreal. Tampa Bay exploded offensively in scoring six goals during a Game 3 win on Friday evening. The Canadiens will aim to stem the tide as they continue their Cinderella run through the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs. 

The game is set to begin at 8 p.m. ET in Montreal. William Hill Sportsbook lists Tampa Bay as -160 favorites (risk $160 to win $100), while the over-under, or total number of goals Vegas thinks will be scored, is five in the latest Lightning vs. Canadiens odds. Before making any Canadiens vs. Lightning picks or 2021 Stanley Cup Final predictions, you need to see what SportsLine NHL expert Matt Severance has to say.

Severance is a well-connected writer and handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. He is a whopping 150-94 in his last 244 NHL picks, returning more than $1,900 for the $100 bettor. 

Now, Severance has set his sights on Lightning vs. Canadiens. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NHL betting lines and trends for Canadiens vs. Lightning:

  • Lightning vs. Canadiens money line: Lightning -160, Canadiens +140
  • Lightning vs. Canadiens over-under: 5 goals
  • Lightning vs. Canadiens spread: Lightning -1.5 (+170)
  • Tampa Bay: The Lightning are 7-3 on the road during the playoffs
  • Montreal: The Canadiens are 5-4 at home during the playoffs

Featured Game | Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

Why the Lightning can win

Tampa Bay leads the Stanley Cup Playoffs in goal differential, and the Lightning have been elite on both sides of the ice. The Lightning are scoring 3.43 goals per game in the postseason and, along the way, they are converting 36.7 percent of their power play chances. Nikita Kucherov comfortably leads the field with 32 points in the playoffs, producing a whopping 24 assists in just 21 games. He is flanked by Brayden Point, who has a league-leading 14 playoff goals and a No. 2 mark in points with 23. 

Finally, the Lightning seem to have the number of Canadiens star goalie Carey Price. Price entered the series playing at a high level, but he is yielding 4.38 goals per game and saving only 83.5 percent of shots through the first three games. In terms of goal prevention, Tampa Bay has been even better, leading the playoffs in giving up only 2.00 goals per game. The Lightning also lead the NHL in save percentage (0.938) during the postseason, and they are in a groove with regard to penalty killing and defensive resistance.

Why the Canadiens can win

Montreal is in a difficult spot, but that is nothing new for this team. The Canadiens came back from a 3-1 deficit in the first round against a more talented Toronto team, and they had the worst regular-season record of any playoff team, losing their final five games in the regular season. Montreal is the NHL’s all-time winningest franchise and, if the Canadiens are able to score effectively, their defense should be able to do the rest. 

The Canadiens are an impressive 11-1 in the playoffs when scoring at least two goals, and they have a balanced offense with myriad players capable of scoring at any moment. Price, Montreal’s 33-year-old goalie, has struggled in the series, but he has an impressive pedigree dating back to the previous rounds. From there, Montreal’s penalty kill unit has been the best in playoffs at 90.6 percent, and they also lead the entire postseason by a wide margin with four short-handed goals. 

How to make Lightning vs. Canadiens picks

Severance is going under on total goals scored. He’s also found an x-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the money line in Game 4 of the 2021 Stanley Cup Final. You can see his Stanley Cup Final 2021 picks only on SportsLine.

So who wins Lightning vs. Canadiens? And what x-factor makes one side of the money line a huge value? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Lightning vs. Canadiens matchup you need to jump on Monday, all from the expert that has crushed his NHL picks, and find out. 

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