UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 odds, predictions: MMA insider releases surprising fight card picks

UFC 264 will take place on Saturday in Las Vegas in front of a full-capacity crowd at T-Mobile Arena. The roughly 20,000 fans in attendance will witness the third bout between UFC veterans Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier. McGregor won the first fight back with a knockout at UFC 178, but Poirier avenged the loss seven years later with a knockout victory of his own at UFC 257. Poirier is the No. 1 contender in the lightweight division at 27-6, while McGregor is No. 5 at 22-5 entering Saturday’s bout. The main UFC 264 fight card is set for 10 p.m. ET.

McGregor is a -115 favorite (risk $115 to win $100), while Poirier is offered at -105 in the latest Poirier vs. McGregor 3 odds from William Hill Sportsbook. In the co-main event, welterweight contenders meet as fifth-ranked Stephen Thompson (-140) faces second-ranked Gilbert Burns (+120). Before making any UFC 264 picks of your own, make sure you see the MMA predictions and expert UFC picks from SportsLine analyst Ian Parker. 

A former fighter who’s been in the industry for 15 years, Parker has managed some of the world’s best, including former UFC middleweight champ Chris Weidman, Costas Philippou and Gian Villante. Parker trained alongside UFC Hall of Famer Matt Serra. Now, Parker breaks down fights and makes betting picks for the Voice of the UFC, Jon Anik.

Parker is coming off a mind-boggling 2020 season. On the Anik & Florian Podcast, Parker went an astounding 58-14, returning $9,465 to $100 bettors who followed him. He hit 11 of his 17 underdog picks and 19 of 30 main events. Overall, Parker nailed an astonishing 81 percent of his plays.

The revered MMA analyst already has had a standout 2021 campaign for SportsLine members. Last week at UFC Fight Night, he posted a 7-2 record and his winners included calling for a relatively easy win by heavyweight prospect Cyril Gane (-145) against veteran Alexander Volkov (+125) in their five-round main event. Anyone who has followed him has seen massive returns. 

Now, with UFC 264: Poirier vs McGregor 3 in sight, Parker has studied the MMA odds and each matchup on the UFC 264 card from every angle and released his top selections. A successful parlay of his top UFC 264 picks would generate a payback of better than 10-1. Those picks are available only at SportsLine.  

UFC 264: McGregor vs. Poirier 3 preview

Parker knows the main event will have a serious impact on the legacy of both fighters. With the help of the UFC marketing machine, McGregor cut a nearly mythical figure for himself with his distinctive look and infamous, verbose swagger.

The “Notorious” fighter held up his end of the storyline with dominance inside the cage for the early stages of his UFC career. Perhaps his coming-of-age moment happened seven years ago in his first meeting with Poirier, who was similarly considered a brash prospect with the talent and sinister disposition to match.

After weeks of nonstop trash talk, McGregor (22-5) put Poirier away at the 1:46 mark in the first round as the Louisiana native offered little in the way of resistance or resilience. McGregor went on to become the UFC”s first active two-division champion. 

Poirier (27-6-1), meanwhile, quietly won nine of his next 10 fights to emerge as one of the world’s best lightweights. His resume includes two wins over celebrated former featherweight champion Max Holloway, the latter of which came for the interim title in April 2019. Later that year, he came up short for the unified title against Khabib Nurmagomedov, who has since retired as an undefeated champion. You can only see who to back here.

UFC 264: McGregor vs. Poirier 3 predictions

We’ll reveal one of Parker’s UFC 264 selections here: He is siding with Max Griffin (-175) to get the win over Carlos Condit (+155) in a welterweight bout. Griffin is a 35-year-old American who improved to 17-8 in his career with back-to-back knockout victories in his last two fights. While the striking numbers match up decently, it is expected that Griffin will have a distinct advantage on the ground.

Griffin averages 1.73 takedowns per 15 minutes in his UFC career, while Condit only averages 0.61. Condit’s ability to stop Griffin from taking the fight to the mat is suspect at best, as he only defends against 36 percent of opponents’ takedown attempts. Throughout his career, Condit has struggled to get off his back against quality wrestlers, a major reason why Parker is leaning towards Griffin for Saturday night.

How to make UFC 264 picks

Parker also has strong picks for Poirier vs. McGregor 3 and other fights on the UFC 264 card. He’s also backing one fighter to use his “karate-style striking” to pull off a decisive win. Those picks and other UFC 264 predictions are only available at SportsLine.

Who wins Poirier vs. McGregor 3? And which fighter is a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed top picks on UFC 264: Connor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier 3, all from the UFC insider who’s up nearly $9,500 on MMA picks in the past year, and find out.

UFC 264 odds

Dustin Poirier (-105) vs. Conor McGregor (-115)
Stephen Thompson (-140) vs. Gilbert Burns (+120)
Tai Tuivasa (-140) vs. Greg Hardy (+120)
Irene Aldana (-145) vs. Yana Kunitskaya (+125)
Sean O’Malley (-800) vs. Kris Moutinho (+550)
Max Griffin (-175) vs. Carlos Condit (+155)
Michel Pereira (-160) vs. Niko Price (+140)
Trevin Giles (-120) vs. Dricus du Plessis (+100)
Ilia Topuria (-240) vs. Ryan Hall (+200)
Jennifer Maia (-190) vs. Jessica Eye (+170)
Brad Tavares (-175) vs. Omari Akhmedov (+155)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov (-400) vs. Jerome Rivera (+320) 
Alen Amedovski (-175) vs. Yaozong Hu (+155) 

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