(The Center Square) Levi Strauss heir and homelessness expert Daniel Lurie appears on course to defeat incumbent London Breed to become mayor of San Francisco, suggesting the mayor’s recent efforts to reduce homelessness and crime were not enough to win voters over. Early returns also show voters may recall Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao and Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price.
Lurie, who entered the race as a political newcomer, ran on a platform specifically targeting homelessness after creating a large-scale nonprofit that has been able to cheaply house and treat homeless individuals.
Breed started a late crackdown on homelessness, forcing individuals out of their tents to reduce the number of visible tents while the homeless remained on the streets.
San Francisco operates under a ranked-choice voting system by which voters can rank up to ten candidates in order of preference, and after the first round, when everyone’s first choice is counted, if no one has a majority, the worst-performing first-choice candidate is dropped, and that candidate’s votes go to the voter’s second-choice candidate. This process is repeated until a winner emerges.
As of the time of publication, San Francisco estimates Lurie would have 56.34% of the vote in the fourteenth round of voting and elimination, with Breed at 43.66%. With half the ballots still outstanding, and California accepting properly postmarked ballots until one week after Election Day, the winner may not be known for several days.
Breed rose to mayor despite being behind in early vote counts, so her emerging as mayor would not be without personal precedent.
With almost two thirds of voters opting to recall Thao and Price, voters may have thrown out those blamed for the near doubling of violent crime in Alameda County from 2022 to 2023. Of Alameda County violent crimes in 2023, three quarters were in Oakland, where violent crime went up 238% between 2022 and 2023.
California Governor Gavin Newsom publicly detailed how Price delayed the deployment of California National Guard and California Department of Justice prosecutors to the county to assist with combating crime, highlighting the state of affairs in the district attorney’s office.
Newsom also told Oakland to end its policy of police not being able to chase criminals. With Oakland going broke, the city is blaming falling revenue on “perceived crime,” while making the bulk of budget cuts from public safety.
“When Oakland’s black community initiated the mayoral recall in January, driven by rising crime—the city led the nation in stolen vehicles in 2023—and governmental dysfunction, progressives scoffed,” recalled recall organizer Seneca Scott in Compact Magazine. “They laughed at our notice of intent and mocked our early organizing efforts. But their laughter quieted when we submitted more than 40,000 signatures, six weeks ahead of schedule.”
Oakland’s NAACP chapter made headlines in July 2023 when it demanded that the district attorney prosecute criminals and that the city hire more police. With Thao recalled — the city council president will sit in as mayor until a special election can be held — and Price’s successor to be appointed by the Alameda County Board of Supervisors, the Scott and the Oakland NAACP have a chance to get the change they have organized more than a year for.
With 39% of the votes counted for Alameda County and 36% in the City of Oakland, about two-thirds of voters in each jurisdiction are supporting the recalls, which, while not called, appear on course to succeed.
