(The Center Square) – The typical California tax filer’s taxes would rise $3,769 if the 2017 Trump tax cuts expire, a new study says.
The study from the National Taxpayers Union Foundation, a pro-taxpayer organization, analyzed the impact that the expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, signed into law by President Donald Trump in 2017, would have on taxpayers on a state-by-state basis.
The TCJA lowered tax rates and doubled the standard deduction, which 90% of tax filers use instead of itemizing their deductions. The child tax credit would also halve from $2,000 to $1,000. As a result, NTUF found that 80% of Americans would face tax hikes if the TCJA is not renewed by the end of 2025.
“Altogether, individual and business taxes would rise by $500 billion annually, reducing U.S. GDP by 1.1% and wages by 0.5%,” wrote NTUF. “Since states benefited from TCJA-driven economic growth and tax base expansions, expiration means facing the opposite trends.”
This tax hike could strain California households already grappling with the state’s high cost of living and potential tariffs, which in turn could reduce consumer spending and impact local businesses.
The NTUF study follows a report from the National Federation of Independent Business finding that the California small business tax rate would surge to 52.9% if the TCJA and its 20% small business tax deduction is not renewed, while the corporate tax rate would be 29.84%.
The NFIB report, conducted by Ernst and Young, found the higher taxes would apply to 4.2 million California small businesses.
The TCJA has insulated small businesses from skyrocketing costs of living and doing business since the pandemic, NFIB California Director John Kabateck told The Center Square. He added that greater losses in private sector employment could impact funding for critical public services.
“We would have seen more people in the unemployment line and small businesses and employers fleeing California. This has proven to give them the ability to stay open and keep operating,” Kabateck said during an interview. “When small business owners thrive, consumers thrive, and so do our public services. If this were to expire, we will see fewer jobs and businesses on Main Street, which means less dollars going to our public coffers.”
Earlier this year, the state-funded Legislative Analyst’s office announced it is projecting lower corporate and sales tax revenue, highlighting the state’s economic weakness.
Jobs data also suggests the state has been in a downturn, with a loss of 149,900 private sector jobs in just the past year.
