(The Center Square ) – Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are statistically tied in Nevada, with Harris holding a 48% to 47% lead among likely voters in a two-way race, which falls within the poll’s margin of error.
The Noble Predictive Insights poll released this week shows both candidates retaining strong support among members of their own parties with independents evenly split. Harris’ leads results from the greater number of registered Democrats in Neveda and the fact that Harris has firmed up support among her own party.
The poll of 812 registered and 692 likely voters was conducted from Sept. 9-16 and has a margin of error of 3.44% among registered voters and 3.72% among likely voters, leaving Harris’ nominal lead well within the margin of error.
The poll was added to the RealClear polling average for Nevada that shows Harris with an even narrower lead of 0.4%, at 47.2% to Trump’s 46.8%. The polling average does not account for margin of error. In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Trump by 2.4% in Nevada, exactly as predicted in the RealClear average, although Trump nearly managed to close a 7.5% gap on Biden between late September and election day that year.
The poll shows deep divides among voters by levels of education, with Trump holding a narrow lead among non-college graduates (47%-46%). By contrast, Harris leads by a 59%-33% margin among voters with graduate degrees. However, only 10% of Nevadans over the age of 25 hold graduate degrees and so contribute proportionately little to Harris’ support.
Trump’s lead among non-graduates may reflect his proposal to eliminate federal taxes on tips, an issue especially important in Nevada because of the state’s large numbers of service workers. Although Harris also supports ending taxes on tips, the poll shows that voters trust Trump more on the issue (47%-40%), one of the few issues where he leads Harris.
While Trump also leads on immigration, gun policy, and economic issues like inflation, the poll shows Harris with leads on health care, abortion, climate change, and housing. Noble Predictive Insights notes that they expect to release more information on the issues that matter to voters in the coming week.
Voters were significantly more likely to find Trump “disrespectful,” “reckless,” and “manipulative” than Harris, whom voters also found more compassionate than Trump. Nevertheless, the poll shows Trump was less likely to be viewed as “weak” and “emotional” and he was also viewed as slightly more qualified for office.
The poll also showed a 4% lead for Democrats running for Congress among both registered and likely voters, suggesting Trump would outperform his party.
